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Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Fell Back in February, but Still in Recent Range
The NAR U.S. Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index decreased 7.6% (-1.4% y/y) in February to 173.1...
European New Car Registrations Remarkably Strong Yet Forgettable
Car registrations are not going to be the only statistic that bears these dual and seemingly dueling characteristics...
U.S. Retail Sales Soar in March
Total retail sales including food service and drinking establishments increased 9.8% (27.7% y/y) during March...
U.S. Industrial Production Rebounded in March
Industrial production rebounded in March, rising 1.4% m/m (+1.0% y/y)...
U.S. Home Builder Index Edges Higher in April
The NAHB-Wells Fargo Composite Housing Market Index rose 1.2% to 83 during April...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller December 17, 2015
Initial claims for unemployment insurance declined to 271,000 (-4.6% y/y) in the week ending December 12 from an unrevised 282,000 in the previous week. The decline reversed most of the prior month's increase. Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 273,000 filings. The four-week moving average held steady at 270,000 and remained near the 15-year low. During the last ten years, there has been a 74% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in payroll employment.
The latest claims figure covers the survey week for December employment and initial claims were stable with the November period. During the last ten years, there has been a 75% correlation between the level of claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
In the week ending December 5, continuing claims for unemployment insurance edged lower to 2.238 million, though claims in the last two weeks were raised from the November lows. The four-week moving average also edged higher to 2.200 million, but remained near the 15-year low.
The insured rate of unemployment held at 1.7%, remaining near the cycle low.
Insured rates of unemployment across states continued to vary. The lowest were South Dakota (0.5%), Nebraska (0.7%), Florida (0.8%), Indiana (0.8%), Virginia (0.8%) and Tennessee (0.9%). At the other end of the spectrum were Massachusetts (2.1%), Illinois (2.2%), Connecticut (2.3%), Pennsylvania (2.4%), California (2.7%) and New Jersey (2.7%). The state data are not seasonally adjusted and reported with a two-week lag versus the headline figure.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 12/12/15 | 12/05/15 | 11/28/15 | Y/Y % | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 271 | 282 | 269 | -4.6 | 307 | 342 | 372 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 2,238 | 2,245 | -6.5 | 2,607 | 2,978 | 3,308 |
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.7 | 1.7 |
1.8 |
2.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 |