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Economy in Brief

U.S. Budget Deficit Deepens Y/Y
by Tom Moeller  December 10, 2015

The U.S. Treasury Department reported a $64.6 billion budget deficit during November, deeper than the $56.8 billion deficit twelve months earlier. A $68.0 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. In the first two months of FY'16, the deficit deepened to $201.1 billion versus $178.5 billion during the same period in FY'15.

Overall revenues have increased 2.9% so far in FY'16 versus FY'15, dragged down by a 38.1% y/y decline in corporate income tax payments. Individual income taxes have increased a slightly improved 5.3% y/y. Growth in social insurance contributions of 6.0% y/y have accompanied a 0.3% y/y gain in excise taxes.

Government spending has advanced 5.9% y/y so far in FY'16, held back by a modest 2.7% y/y gain in defense outlays. Growth in outlays on health programs of 11.0% has been boosted by the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. Veterans benefits & services payments have grown 11.0% y/y. Medicare payments have risen a firm 8.7% y/y while Social Security spending growth has been steady at 4.3% y/y. Offsetting these gains have been a 9.2% y/y decline in education, training, employment & social services spending and a 2.4% y/y decline in income security payments with the lower unemployment rate. Interest payments also have declined 2.6% y/y.

Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.

United States Government Finance Nov' 2015 FY'16 YTD FY'15 FY'14 FY'13 FY'12
Budget Balance -$64.6 -$201.1 bil. -$438.9 bil. -$483.4 bil. -$680.2 bil. -$1,089.2 bil.
  As a percent of GDP -- -- 2.5 2.8 4.1 6.8
% of Total Annual Change, YTD
Net Revenues 100 2.9% 7.6% 8.9% 13.3% 6.4%
  Individual Income Taxes 47 5.3 10.5 5.9 16.3 3.7
  Corporate Income Taxes 11 -38.1 7.2 17.3 12.9 33.8
  Social Insurance Taxes 33 6.0 4.1 8.0 12.1 3.2
  Excise Taxes 3 -0.3 5.3 11.1 6.3 9.2
Net Outlays 100 5.9 5.2 1.4 -2.4 -1.7
  National Defense 16 2.7 -2.3 -4.7 -6.3 -3.9
  Health 13 11.0 17.8 14.3 3.3 -7.0
  Medicare 15 8.7 6.7 2.8 5.5 -2.8
  Income Security 14 -2.4 -0.9 -4.3 -1.1 -9.1
  Social Security 24 4.3 4.4 4.5 5.2 5.8
  Veterans Benefits & Services 4 11.0 6.8 7.7 11.5 -2.0
  Education, Training, Employment & Social Services 3 -9.2 34.7 25.9 -21.9 -10.3
  Interest 6 -2.6 -1.8 2.8 0.4 -3.0
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