Recent Updates
- US: Wholesale Trade (Feb), Producer Prices (Mar)
- US: Producer Price Indexes by Commodity Detail (Mar)
- US: Producer Price Indexes by Industry Detail (Mar)
- Canada: Investment in Building Construction (Feb), Labor Force Survey (Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Wholesale Inventories Post Strong February Gain; Sales Fall
Wholesale inventories increased 0.6% (2.0% y/y) during February...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Unexpectedly Increase
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 744,000 during the week ended April 3...
Total PMIs Gain Traction in March
The PMI readings for March show improvement again...
U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Bounces Back in February
Consumer credit outstanding surged $27.6 billion during February...
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to Record during February
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $71.1 during February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller December 10, 2015
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 282,000 (-1.2% y/y) in the week ending December 5 from an unrevised 269,000 the previous week. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 265,000 filings. The four-week moving average rose slightly to 270,750 but remained near the 15-year low. During the last ten years, there has been a 74% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in payroll employment.
In the week ending November 28, continuing claims for unemployment insurance edged up to 2.243 million, but were 8.7% lower than a year earlier. The four-week moving average increased to 2.183 million and remained near the 15-year low.
The insured rate of unemployment notched higher to 1.7% but remained near the cycle low.
The insured rate of unemployment across states continued to vary. The lowest were South Dakota (0.4%), Nebraska (0.6%), Florida (0.6%), Indiana (0.7%), Virginia (0.7%) and Tennessee (0.8%). At the other end of the spectrum were California (1.7%), Illinois (1.8%), Massachusetts (1.9%), Connecticut (2.0%), Pennsylvania (2.2%) and New Jersey (2.4%). The state data are not seasonally adjusted and reported with a two-week lag versus the headline figure.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 12/05/15 | 11/28/15 | 11/21/15 | Y/Y % | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 282 | 269 | 260 | -1.2 | 307 | 342 | 372 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 2,243 | 2,161 | -8.7 | 2,607 | 2,978 | 3,308 |
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.7 | 1.6 |
1.8 |
2.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 |