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- US: Wholesale Trade (Feb), Producer Prices (Mar)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Wholesale Inventories Post Strong February Gain; Sales Fall
Wholesale inventories increased 0.6% (2.0% y/y) during February...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Unexpectedly Increase
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 744,000 during the week ended April 3...
Total PMIs Gain Traction in March
The PMI readings for March show improvement again...
U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Bounces Back in February
Consumer credit outstanding surged $27.6 billion during February...
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to Record during February
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $71.1 during February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller December 7, 2015
Consumer credit outstanding increased $16.0 billion during October after a $28.6 billion September rise, revised from $28.9 billion. Expectations were for a $20.0 billion gain in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 47% correlation between the y/y growth in consumer credit and y/y growth in personal consumption expenditures.
Nonrevolving credit borrowing gained $15.8 billion (7.9% y/y). Federal government loans (35.5% of the total) increased 12.9% y/y. Finance company balances (25% of the total) improved 2.7% y/y. Borrowing at banks (also 25% of the total) rose 5.8% y/y and borrowing at credit unions (11% of the total) advanced 13.6% y/y. Nonprofit & educational institution loans (2% of the total) declined 12.0% y/y, and nonfinancial business loans (1% of the total) remained unchanged y/y.
Revolving consumer credit was little-changed (4.4% y/y). Depository institution balances (82% of the total) increased 6.4% y/y. Finance company lending (6.5% of the total) declined 6.0% y/y and borrowing from credit unions (5% of the total) improved 7.0% y/y. Nonfinancial business credit (3% of the total) declined 8.6% y/y and securitized credit card balances (3% of the total) fell 12.0% y/y.
During the third quarter, student loan debt increased 6.7% y/y and motor vehicle loans gained 9.2% y/y.
These Federal Reserve Board figures are break-adjusted and calculated by Haver Analytics. There is a break in the credit outstanding data from November 2010 to December 2010 due to the Fed's benchmarking process. Benchmark estimates are based on the Census of Finance Companies (CFC) and the Survey of Finance Companies (SFC) conducted in 2010 and 2011, respectively.
The consumer credit data are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are contained in the AS1REPNA database.
Consumer Credit Outstanding (M/M Chg, SA) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | $16.0 bil. | $28.6 bil. | $14.6 bil. | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.1% |
Revolving | 0.2 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
Nonrevolving | 15.8 | 21.9 | 11.5 | 7.9 | 8.3 | 7.9 | 8.5 |