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Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Fell Back in February, but Still in Recent Range
The NAR U.S. Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index decreased 7.6% (-1.4% y/y) in February to 173.1...
European New Car Registrations Remarkably Strong Yet Forgettable
Car registrations are not going to be the only statistic that bears these dual and seemingly dueling characteristics...
U.S. Retail Sales Soar in March
Total retail sales including food service and drinking establishments increased 9.8% (27.7% y/y) during March...
U.S. Industrial Production Rebounded in March
Industrial production rebounded in March, rising 1.4% m/m (+1.0% y/y)...
U.S. Home Builder Index Edges Higher in April
The NAHB-Wells Fargo Composite Housing Market Index rose 1.2% to 83 during April...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller December 2, 2015
Nonfarm productivity during Q3'15 grew 2.2% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, revised from 1.6%. The increase followed an unrevised 3.5% rise in Q2. The revised Q3 increase matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Real output growth of 1.8% (2.5% y/y) was revised from 1.2%. Hours worked eased 0.3% (+1.9% y/y), revised from -0.5%. Compensation per hour grew 4.0% (3.6% y/y) which was changed from 3.0%. The Q2 increase, however, was revised up even more sharply to 5.6% from 1.7%. As a result, unit labor cost growth last quarter was raised to 1.8% (3.0% y/y) from 1.4%, but the Q2 increase of 2.0% was lifted even more sharply from a 1.8% decline. A revised 1.0% rise in Q3 costs was expected.
Manufacturing sector productivity surged a little-revised 5.1% (1.5% y/y) during Q3, following a 2.2% increase. This remained the strongest gain in four years. Real factory-sector output grew 3.2% (2.0% y/y) but hours worked declined 1.8% (+0.4% y/y). Compensation per hour strengthened 7.5% (3.7% y/y), revised from 5.9%, but the 5.5% rise in Q2 was revised from no change. The Q3 rise was the firmest rise since Q1'14. As a result, unit labor cost growth of 2.3% (2.1% y/y) was revised from 0.8%. That followed a 3.3% Q2 gain which was revised from -2.0%.
The productivity & cost figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey and are found in the AS1REPNA database.
The Fed's latest Beige Book covering regional economic conditions is available here.
Productivity & Costs (SAAR, %) | Q3'15 | Q2'15 | Q1'15 | Q3 Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nonfarm Business Sector | |||||||
Output per Hour (Productivity) | 2.2 | 3.5 | -1.1 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.9 |
Compensation per Hour | 4.0 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 2.7 |
Unit Labor Costs | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 1.7 |
Manufacturing Sector | |||||||
Output per Hour (Productivity) | 5.1 | 2.2 | -0.6 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
Compensation per Hour | 7.5 | 5.5 | -2.2 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 0.2 | 1.8 |
Unit Labor Costs | 2.3 | 3.3 | -1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | -0.5 | 1.0 |