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Economy in Brief

U.S. ADP Reports Largest Payroll Increase Since June, Paced by Small Business
by Tom Moeller  December 2, 2015

The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls increased 217,000 during November following a 196,000 October gain, revised from 182,000. The latest was firmer than expectations for a 190,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 97% correlation between the change in the ADP figure and the change in nonfarm private sector payrolls as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The ADP Research Institute survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 411,000 companies and nearly 24 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data. The ADP data cover private sector employment, not government.

Small-businesses strengthened hiring by 81,000 workers (2.3% y/y) in November after a 91,000 rise in the prior month. Large businesses doubled the hiring rate m/m and added 74,000 (1.9% y/y) workers following a 37,000 October rise. That gain mostly reflected a jump in hiring by companies with 500 to 999 employees. Medium-sized businesses added to payrolls by 62,000 individuals (1.9% y/y) after a 67,000 increase.

Hiring in the goods-producing sector of the economy increased a lessened 13,000 (1.0% y/y). Hiring in the construction sector posted a 16,000 increase (4.7% y/y), roughly half the increases during the two months. Factory sector hiring rebounded 6,000 (0.2% y/y), after two months of decline. Service industry hiring grew a strengthened 204,000 last month (2.3% y/y), the largest increase since June. Payrolls in professional & business services jumped 59,000 (2.4% y/y) while hiring in trade, transportation & utilities industries improved 30,000 (1.9% y/y), the smallest rise in three months. Employment in financial activities increased 9,000 (1.9% y/y), the smallest rise since April.

The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to April 2001 for the total and industry breakdown and back to January 2005 for the business size breakout. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.

The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy is the title of today's speech by Fed Chair Janet L. Yellen and it is available here.

ADP/Moody's National Employment Report Nov Oct Sep Nov Y/Y 2014 2013 2012
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) 217 196 199 2.1% 2.3% 1.9% 2.3%
 Small Payroll (1-49) 81 91 52 2.3 2.1 1.9 2.5
 Medium Payroll (50-499) 62 67 46 1.9 2.8 2.2 2.1
 Large Payroll (>500) 74 37 101 1.9 1.8 1.6 2.1
Goods-Producing 13 22 8 1.0 2.3 1.7 2.2
  Construction 16 32 34 4.7 4.6 3.5 2.5
  Manufacturing 6 -2 -17 0.2 1.2 0.9 1.6
Service-Producing 204 174 191 2.3 2.3 2.0 2.3
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