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Economy in Brief
FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Improve Modestly
The FIBER Industrial Materials Price Index increased 0.9% during the four weeks ended April 9...
EMU Retail Sales Jump, Regaining Some of the January Drop
February finds EU retail sales and motor vehicle registration rebounding...
U.S. PPI Posts Broad-Based Strength in March
The Producer Price Index for final demand jumped 1.0% (4.2% y/y) during March...
U.S. Wholesale Inventories Post Strong February Gain; Sales Fall
Wholesale inventories increased 0.6% (2.0% y/y) during February...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Unexpectedly Increase
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 744,000 during the week ended April 3...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Monetary Policy Blunder: Not Managing Economic & Financial Outcomes Equally
Monetary Policy at a Crossroad: Policymakers Need to Break Promise of Easy Money to Avoid Boom-Bust
State Coincident Indexes in January
Data Surprises, Markets and COVID
by Tom Moeller November 19, 2015
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell slightly to 271,000 (-7.2% y/y) during the week ended November 14 from an unrevised 276,000 in the prior week. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 270,000 initial claims. The four-week moving average increased slightly to 270,750 but remained near the 15-year low.
The latest reading covers the survey period for November nonfarm payrolls. Initial claims rose 12,000 (4.6%) from the October survey week. During the last ten years, there has been a 75% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
In the week ended November 7, continuing claims for unemployment insurance eased w/w to 2.175 million (-7.5% y/y). The four-week moving average held fairly steady at 2.167 million, but also remained near the 15-year low.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 1.6%, equaling the lowest point since June 2000.
By state, the insured rate of unemployment continued to vary with North Carolina (0.65%), Indiana (0.70%), Virginia (0.73%), Florida (0.72%), Tennessee (0.85%) and Kansas (0.88%) at the low end of the range. At the high end remained Massachusetts (1.73%), Connecticut (2.01%), Pennsylvania (2.06%), California (2.12%), New Jersey (2.33%) and Alaska (3.41%). These data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 11/14/15 | 11/07/15 | 10/31/15 | Y/Y % | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 271 | 276 | 276 | -7.2 | 307 | 342 | 372 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 2,175 | 2,177 | -7.5 | 2,607 | 2,978 | 3,308 |
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.6 | 1.6 |
1.8 |
2.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 |