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Economy in Brief
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Recover; Prices Surge
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index rebounded to 25.7 during July...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Hit Lowest Since 1969
Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped to 207,000 during the week ended July 14...
Japan's Trade Deficit Swings Back to Surplus (Small Surplus)
Japan's early June trade results show a goods trade position having swung back to surplus in June from deficit in May...
U.S. Housing Starts Weaken Unexpectedly
Total housing starts declined 12.3% (-4.2% y/y) during June to 1.173 million (AR)...
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Reverse Earlier Increase
The MBA total Mortgage Applications Index declined 2.5% last week (-12.8% y/y)...
by Tom Moeller November 12, 2015
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a $136.5 billion budget deficit during October, deeper than the $121.7 billion deficit twelve months earlier A $127.5 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Overall revenues declined 0.8% versus October FY'14, dragged down by a 58.4% y/y decline in corporate income tax payments. Individual income taxes also grew by a muted 2.4% y/y. Growth in social insurance contributions remained moderate at 4.0% y/y while excise taxes fell 5.7% y/y.
Government spending advanced 3.9% y/y, held back by a 4.6% y/y decline in defense outlays as well as a 24.7% y/y retreat in spending for education, training, employment & social services. Still on the strong-side was growth in outlays on health programs of 10.9% with the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. Medicare payments also grew a firm 9.8% y/y while Social Security spending growth was steady at 4.3% y/y. Veterans benefits & services payments grew 9.6% y/y. Offsetting these gains was an 8.7% y/y decline in income security payments with the lower unemployment rate. Interest payments also declined 5.3% y/y.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.
CBO's Revenue Forecasting Record from the Congressional Budget Office can be found here.
| United States Government Finance | Oct. 2015 | FY'15 | FY'14 | FY'13 | FY'12 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance | -- | -$136.5 bil. | -$438.9 bil. | -$483.4 bil. | -$680.2 bil. | -$1,089.2 bil. |
| As a percent of GDP | -- | -- | 2.5 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 6.8 |
| % of Total | ||||||
| Net Revenues (Y/Y % Change) | 100 | -0.8% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 13.3% | 6.4% |
| Individual Income Taxes | 47 | 2.4 | 10.5 | 5.9 | 16.3 | 3.7 |
| Corporate Income Taxes | 11 | -58.4 | 7.2 | 17.3 | 12.9 | 33.8 |
| Social Insurance Taxes | 33 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 8.0 | 12.1 | 3.2 |
| Excise Taxes | 3 | -5.7 | 5.3 | 11.1 | 6.3 | 9.2 |
| Net Outlays (Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 1.4 | -2.4 | -1.7 |
| National Defense | 16 | -4.6 | -2.3 | -4.7 | -6.3 | -3.9 |
| Health | 13 | 10.9 | 17.8 | 14.3 | 3.3 | -7.0 |
| Medicare | 15 | 9.8 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 5.5 | -2.8 |
| Income Security | 14 | -8.7 | -0.9 | -4.3 | -1.1 | -9.1 |
| Social Security | 24 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 5.8 |
| Veterans Benefits & Services | 4 | 9.6 | 6.8 | 7.7 | 11.5 | -2.0 |
| Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 3 | -24.7 | 34.7 | 25.9 | -21.9 | -10.3 |
| Interest | 6 | -5.3 | -1.8 | 2.8 | 0.4 | -3.0 |
