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Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Fell Back in February, but Still in Recent Range
The NAR U.S. Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index decreased 7.6% (-1.4% y/y) in February to 173.1...
European New Car Registrations Remarkably Strong Yet Forgettable
Car registrations are not going to be the only statistic that bears these dual and seemingly dueling characteristics...
U.S. Retail Sales Soar in March
Total retail sales including food service and drinking establishments increased 9.8% (27.7% y/y) during March...
U.S. Industrial Production Rebounded in March
Industrial production rebounded in March, rising 1.4% m/m (+1.0% y/y)...
U.S. Home Builder Index Edges Higher in April
The NAHB-Wells Fargo Composite Housing Market Index rose 1.2% to 83 during April...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller November 12, 2015
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a $136.5 billion budget deficit during October, deeper than the $121.7 billion deficit twelve months earlier A $127.5 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Overall revenues declined 0.8% versus October FY'14, dragged down by a 58.4% y/y decline in corporate income tax payments. Individual income taxes also grew by a muted 2.4% y/y. Growth in social insurance contributions remained moderate at 4.0% y/y while excise taxes fell 5.7% y/y.
Government spending advanced 3.9% y/y, held back by a 4.6% y/y decline in defense outlays as well as a 24.7% y/y retreat in spending for education, training, employment & social services. Still on the strong-side was growth in outlays on health programs of 10.9% with the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. Medicare payments also grew a firm 9.8% y/y while Social Security spending growth was steady at 4.3% y/y. Veterans benefits & services payments grew 9.6% y/y. Offsetting these gains was an 8.7% y/y decline in income security payments with the lower unemployment rate. Interest payments also declined 5.3% y/y.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.
CBO's Revenue Forecasting Record from the Congressional Budget Office can be found here.
United States Government Finance | Oct. 2015 | FY'15 | FY'14 | FY'13 | FY'12 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Budget Balance | -- | -$136.5 bil. | -$438.9 bil. | -$483.4 bil. | -$680.2 bil. | -$1,089.2 bil. |
As a percent of GDP | -- | -- | 2.5 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 6.8 |
% of Total | ||||||
Net Revenues (Y/Y % Change) | 100 | -0.8% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 13.3% | 6.4% |
Individual Income Taxes | 47 | 2.4 | 10.5 | 5.9 | 16.3 | 3.7 |
Corporate Income Taxes | 11 | -58.4 | 7.2 | 17.3 | 12.9 | 33.8 |
Social Insurance Taxes | 33 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 8.0 | 12.1 | 3.2 |
Excise Taxes | 3 | -5.7 | 5.3 | 11.1 | 6.3 | 9.2 |
Net Outlays (Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 1.4 | -2.4 | -1.7 |
National Defense | 16 | -4.6 | -2.3 | -4.7 | -6.3 | -3.9 |
Health | 13 | 10.9 | 17.8 | 14.3 | 3.3 | -7.0 |
Medicare | 15 | 9.8 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 5.5 | -2.8 |
Income Security | 14 | -8.7 | -0.9 | -4.3 | -1.1 | -9.1 |
Social Security | 24 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 5.8 |
Veterans Benefits & Services | 4 | 9.6 | 6.8 | 7.7 | 11.5 | -2.0 |
Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 3 | -24.7 | 34.7 | 25.9 | -21.9 | -10.3 |
Interest | 6 | -5.3 | -1.8 | 2.8 | 0.4 | -3.0 |