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Economy in Brief
Delay in Release
of Data for Construction, MSIO, Intl Trade, Wholesale Trade, Treasury Statement, Retail Sales, Business Sales & Inventories, and Housing Starts Due to Lapse in Federal Government Funding.
U.S. Energy Prices Generally Move Higher
Retail gasoline prices were unchanged at $2.25 per gallon last week (-12.3% y/y)...
Japan Logs Another Trade Deficit
Japan logged a deficit on its trade account of 184 billion yen in Decmber...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Drop to Three-Year Low
The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes fell a greater-than-expected 6.4% in December...
Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Business Activity Slumps Again in January
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its Nonmanufacturing Business Index of current conditions at the company level slumped further to -0.2 in January...
by Tom Moeller November 12, 2015
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a $136.5 billion budget deficit during October, deeper than the $121.7 billion deficit twelve months earlier A $127.5 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Overall revenues declined 0.8% versus October FY'14, dragged down by a 58.4% y/y decline in corporate income tax payments. Individual income taxes also grew by a muted 2.4% y/y. Growth in social insurance contributions remained moderate at 4.0% y/y while excise taxes fell 5.7% y/y.
Government spending advanced 3.9% y/y, held back by a 4.6% y/y decline in defense outlays as well as a 24.7% y/y retreat in spending for education, training, employment & social services. Still on the strong-side was growth in outlays on health programs of 10.9% with the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. Medicare payments also grew a firm 9.8% y/y while Social Security spending growth was steady at 4.3% y/y. Veterans benefits & services payments grew 9.6% y/y. Offsetting these gains was an 8.7% y/y decline in income security payments with the lower unemployment rate. Interest payments also declined 5.3% y/y.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.
CBO's Revenue Forecasting Record from the Congressional Budget Office can be found here.
| United States Government Finance | Oct. 2015 | FY'15 | FY'14 | FY'13 | FY'12 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance | -- | -$136.5 bil. | -$438.9 bil. | -$483.4 bil. | -$680.2 bil. | -$1,089.2 bil. |
| As a percent of GDP | -- | -- | 2.5 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 6.8 |
| % of Total | ||||||
| Net Revenues (Y/Y % Change) | 100 | -0.8% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 13.3% | 6.4% |
| Individual Income Taxes | 47 | 2.4 | 10.5 | 5.9 | 16.3 | 3.7 |
| Corporate Income Taxes | 11 | -58.4 | 7.2 | 17.3 | 12.9 | 33.8 |
| Social Insurance Taxes | 33 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 8.0 | 12.1 | 3.2 |
| Excise Taxes | 3 | -5.7 | 5.3 | 11.1 | 6.3 | 9.2 |
| Net Outlays (Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 1.4 | -2.4 | -1.7 |
| National Defense | 16 | -4.6 | -2.3 | -4.7 | -6.3 | -3.9 |
| Health | 13 | 10.9 | 17.8 | 14.3 | 3.3 | -7.0 |
| Medicare | 15 | 9.8 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 5.5 | -2.8 |
| Income Security | 14 | -8.7 | -0.9 | -4.3 | -1.1 | -9.1 |
| Social Security | 24 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 5.8 |
| Veterans Benefits & Services | 4 | 9.6 | 6.8 | 7.7 | 11.5 | -2.0 |
| Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 3 | -24.7 | 34.7 | 25.9 | -21.9 | -10.3 |
| Interest | 6 | -5.3 | -1.8 | 2.8 | 0.4 | -3.0 |
