Recent Updates

  • Korea: PPI (Sep)
  • Croatia: Core CPI, Consumer Confidence (Sep)
  • Canada: Wholesale Trade (Aug), Nonresidential Building Construction (Q3)
  • Canada Regional: Wholesale Trade by Province (Aug)
  • Morocco: CPI (Sep)
  • Palestine: Public Debt (Sep-Prelim)
  • Bangladesh: CPI (Sep)
  • Luxembourg: Employment and Unemployment (Sep)
  • more updates...

Economy in Brief

U.S. Budget Deficit Deepens
by Tom Moeller  November 12, 2015

The U.S. Treasury Department reported a $136.5 billion budget deficit during October, deeper than the $121.7 billion deficit twelve months earlier A $127.5 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Overall revenues declined 0.8% versus October FY'14, dragged down by a 58.4% y/y decline in corporate income tax payments. Individual income taxes also grew by a muted 2.4% y/y. Growth in social insurance contributions remained moderate at 4.0% y/y while excise taxes fell 5.7% y/y.

Government spending advanced 3.9% y/y, held back by a 4.6% y/y decline in defense outlays as well as a 24.7% y/y retreat in spending for education, training, employment & social services. Still on the strong-side was growth in outlays on health programs of 10.9% with the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. Medicare payments also grew a firm 9.8% y/y while Social Security spending growth was steady at 4.3% y/y. Veterans benefits & services payments grew 9.6% y/y. Offsetting these gains was an 8.7% y/y decline in income security payments with the lower unemployment rate. Interest payments also declined 5.3% y/y.

Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.

CBO's Revenue Forecasting Record from the Congressional Budget Office can be found here.

United States Government Finance Oct. 2015 FY'15 FY'14 FY'13 FY'12
Budget Balance -- -$136.5 bil. -$438.9 bil. -$483.4 bil. -$680.2 bil. -$1,089.2 bil.
  As a percent of GDP -- -- 2.5 2.8 4.1 6.8
% of Total
Net Revenues (Y/Y % Change) 100 -0.8% 7.6% 8.9% 13.3% 6.4%
  Individual Income Taxes 47 2.4 10.5 5.9 16.3 3.7
  Corporate Income Taxes 11 -58.4 7.2 17.3 12.9 33.8
  Social Insurance Taxes 33 4.0 4.1 8.0 12.1 3.2
  Excise Taxes 3 -5.7 5.3 11.1 6.3 9.2
Net Outlays (Y/Y % Change) 100 3.9 5.2 1.4 -2.4 -1.7
  National Defense 16 -4.6 -2.3 -4.7 -6.3 -3.9
  Health 13 10.9 17.8 14.3 3.3 -7.0
  Medicare 15 9.8 6.7 2.8 5.5 -2.8
  Income Security 14 -8.7 -0.9 -4.3 -1.1 -9.1
  Social Security 24 4.3 4.4 4.5 5.2 5.8
  Veterans Benefits & Services 4 9.6 6.8 7.7 11.5 -2.0
  Education, Training, Employment & Social Services 3 -24.7 34.7 25.9 -21.9 -10.3
  Interest 6 -5.3 -1.8 2.8 0.4 -3.0
close
large image