Recent Updates

  • Belgium: Business Surveys (Sep)
  • Canada Regional: Wholesale Trade by Province (Jul)
  • US: FRB Chicago National Activity Index (Aug)
  • Canada: Wholesale Trade (Jul)
  • Mauritius: IP (Q2); Turkey: Business Tendency Survey (Sep), Capacity Utilization Rates (Sep)
  • UK: CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Sep)
  • Slovenia: Confidence Indicators, Business Tendency in Construction (Sep); Croatia: Construction Work
  • more updates...

Economy in Brief

U.S. Factory Sector Orders Decline Led by Aircraft
by Tom Moeller  November 3, 2015

New orders in the manufacturing sector fell 1.0% during September (-7.1% y/y) following a revised 2.1% August decline. The drop roughly matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. It was led by a 1.2% decline (-3.5% y/y) in durable goods orders which was unrevised from last week's advance report. The decline was paced by a 36.0% drop (-33.6% y/y) in nondefense aircraft & parts. Factory sector orders excluding the transportation altogether eased 0.6% (-8.6% y/y), the fifth shortfall in the last six months. Orders for nondurable goods (which equal shipments) declined 0.8% (-10.5% y/y), the third straight monthly drop. A 5.7% decline (-38.8% y/y) in shipments from petroleum refineries led the way lower as prices fell. Also declining by 0.2% (+2.4% y/y) were apparel shipments. Food product shipments improved 0.4% (-0.6% y/y) and basic chemical shipments nudged 0.1% higher (-1.3% y/y). Textile mill shipments improved 0.3% but they were down 1.9% y/y. Durable goods shipments increased 0.6% (0.8% y/y) led by a 0.7% increase in electrical equipment, appliances & components.

Unfilled orders in the manufacturing sector declined 0.5% (-2.2% y/y). Transportation sector backlogs fell 0.7% (-2.5% y/y), led by a 0.9% decline (-1.5% y/y) in nondefense aircraft & parts. Outside of the transportation sector, backlogs eased 0.2% (-1.4% y/y). Electrical equipment backlogs fell 0.3% (-0.4% y/y), the sixth decline in as many months, but computer & electronic product backlogs gained 0.2% (+6.9% y/y).

Factory sector inventories declined 0.4% (-1.7% y/y), about as they have during the last three months. Outside of the transportation sector, inventories fell 0.3% (-3.2% y/y). Primary metals inventories were off 0.9% (-7.1% y/y) and machinery inventories were roughly unchanged (-0.7% y/y). Electrical equipment & appliance inventories fell 0.6% (+0.1% y/y) but computer & electronic product inventories fell 1.0% (+1.7% y/y).

The factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is available in AS1REPNA.

Factory Sector- NAICS Classification (%) Sep Aug Jul Y/Y 2014 2013 2012
New Orders -1.0 -2.1 0.2 -7.1 3.5 2.0 4.7
Shipments -0.4 -0.9 -0.2 -5.0 2.6 1.9 4.7
Unfilled Orders -0.5 -0.3 0.2 -2.2 11.5 6.5 7.8
Inventories -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -1.7 2.4 1.7 3.8
close
large image