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Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Prices Ease Broadly
The price of regular gasoline eased to $2.85 per gallon (+53.8% y/y) in the week ended April 12...
U.S. Government Budget Deficit Widens During March
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $659.6 billion during March...
FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Improve Modestly
The FIBER Industrial Materials Price Index increased 0.9% during the four weeks ended April 9...
EMU Retail Sales Jump, Regaining Some of the January Drop
February finds EU retail sales and motor vehicle registration rebounding...
U.S. PPI Posts Broad-Based Strength in March
The Producer Price Index for final demand jumped 1.0% (4.2% y/y) during March...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Monetary Policy Blunder: Not Managing Economic & Financial Outcomes Equally
Monetary Policy at a Crossroad: Policymakers Need to Break Promise of Easy Money to Avoid Boom-Bust
State Coincident Indexes in January
Data Surprises, Markets and COVID
by Tom Moeller October 26, 2015
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicated that production in the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey strengthened this month to the firmest point since December. It was up meaningfully following modest firming in September. Moving the other way, the growth rate of new orders eased. The rate of decline, however, moderated from earlier in the year. This combination left the business activity reading down moderately, but by less than early in the year. Also turning positive was growth in shipments volume to the strongest rate this year. Growth in employment was slightly positive and marked the first rise in six months. The company outlook reading improved but still was negative. The same was the case for finished goods prices.
Expectations for business activity in six months remained modestly positive as production sentiment improved along with orders. The latter figure remained muted, however, versus levels of the last two years. Expectations for employment also rose to the highest level of 2015, but remained down versus the prior two years. Wages & benefits were expected to rise yet growth was little-improved from last year's low. The company outlook also moved off this year's low.
Each index is calculated by subtracting the percentage reporting a decrease from the percentage reporting an increase. When all firms report that activity has increased, an index will register 100. An index will register -100 when all firms report a decrease. An index will be zero when the number of firms reporting an increase or decrease is equal. Items may not add up to 100% because of rounding. Data for the Texas Manufacturing Outlook can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
Long View of China Suggests Inevitable Slowdown from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas can be found here.
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (SA) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct '14 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Current General Business Activity Index (% Balance) | -12.7 | -9.5 | -15.8 | 10.2 | 8.3 | 2.2 | -0.6 |
Production | 4.8 | 0.9 | -0.8 | 14.2 | 14.6 | 9.8 | 8.7 |
Growth Rate of Orders | -7.7 | -4.3 | -14.0 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 0.1 | -2.8 |
Number of Employees | 0.3 | -6.1 | -1.4 | 10.7 | 11.5 | 5.6 | 11.8 |
Prices Received for Finished Goods | -9.5 | -10.9 | -15.7 | 7.0 | 8.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 |
Expected Business Conditions in Six Months | 4.1 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 13.1 | 17.4 | 11.0 | 7.6 |
Production | 34.3 | 24.7 | 28.0 | 40.7 | 42.7 | 37.1 | 32.4 |
Growth Rate of New Orders | 19.6 | 15.2 | 18.6 | 21.5 | 31.5 | 25.0 | 19.5 |
Wages & Benefits | 33.3 | 41.5 | 32.4 | 40.2 | 43.0 | 38.2 | 34.2 |