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Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Fell Back in February, but Still in Recent Range
The NAR U.S. Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index decreased 7.6% (-1.4% y/y) in February to 173.1...
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Car registrations are not going to be the only statistic that bears these dual and seemingly dueling characteristics...
U.S. Retail Sales Soar in March
Total retail sales including food service and drinking establishments increased 9.8% (27.7% y/y) during March...
U.S. Industrial Production Rebounded in March
Industrial production rebounded in March, rising 1.4% m/m (+1.0% y/y)...
U.S. Home Builder Index Edges Higher in April
The NAHB-Wells Fargo Composite Housing Market Index rose 1.2% to 83 during April...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller September 24, 2015
The Chicago Federal Reserve reported that its National Activity Index (CFNAI) during August collapsed to -0.41 after jumping to 0.51 in July, revised from 0.34. Ironing out this volatility was the three-month moving average which remained fairly stable near break-even, its best level since January. During the last ten years, there has been a 77% correlation between the Chicago Fed Index and the q/q change in real GDP.
The Production & Income component again was responsible for most of the volatility in the overall index. It declined to -0.30, reversing most of July's improvement. The Sales, Orders & Inventory component also eased to its lowest reading in three months and the Employment, Unemployment & Hours index declined to its lowest point since March. The Personal Consumption & Housing series eased slightly to -0.08 from -0.06. The Fed reported that 25 of the 85 component series made positive contributions to the total while 60 made negative contributions.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.
The Chicago Federal Reserve figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
Chicago Federal Reserve Bank | Aug | Jul | Jun | Aug '14 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CFNAI | -0.41 | 0.51 | -0.07 | -0.33 | 0.21 | 0.01 | -0.05 |
3-Month Moving Average | 0.01 | 0.02 | -0.10 | 0.16 | -- | -- | -- |
Personal Consumption & Housing | -0.08 | -0.06 | -0.08 | -0.08 | -0.11 | -0.14 | -0.20 |
Employment, Unemployment & Hours | -0.01 | 0.18 | 0.12 | 0.08 | 0.18 | 0.10 | 0.09 |
Production & Income | -0.30 | 0.36 | -0.12 | -0.13 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.06 |
Sales, Orders & Inventories | -0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | -0.21 | 0.04 | 0.03 | -0.00 |