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Economy in Brief
FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Improve Modestly
The FIBER Industrial Materials Price Index increased 0.9% during the four weeks ended April 9...
EMU Retail Sales Jump, Regaining Some of the January Drop
February finds EU retail sales and motor vehicle registration rebounding...
U.S. PPI Posts Broad-Based Strength in March
The Producer Price Index for final demand jumped 1.0% (4.2% y/y) during March...
U.S. Wholesale Inventories Post Strong February Gain; Sales Fall
Wholesale inventories increased 0.6% (2.0% y/y) during February...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Unexpectedly Increase
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 744,000 during the week ended April 3...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Monetary Policy Blunder: Not Managing Economic & Financial Outcomes Equally
Monetary Policy at a Crossroad: Policymakers Need to Break Promise of Easy Money to Avoid Boom-Bust
State Coincident Indexes in January
Data Surprises, Markets and COVID
by Tom Moeller September 17, 2015
Initial unemployment insurance claims declined to 264,000 (-18.0% y/y) during the week ended September 12 from an unrevised 275,000 during the prior week. It was the lowest level of claims since the third week of July. The four week moving average of claims eased to 272,500. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected an unchanged 275,000 initial claims in the latest week.
The latest figure covers the survey period for September nonfarm payrolls and claims fell 4.7% from August. During the last ten years, there has been a 76% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
In the week ended September 5, continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell 1.1% to 2.237 million (-10.7% y/y) from the previous week's 2.263 million. That four-week moving average eased to 2.256 million and has been moving sideways since mid-July.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 1.7%, near the lowest point since June 2000.
By state, the insured rate of unemployment continued to vary with Nebraska (0.56%), Indiana (0.75%), New Hampshire (0.79%), Florida (0.87%), South Carolina (0.88%) and Maine (0.92%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were Massachusetts (2.04%), California (2.24%), Alaska (2.26%), Connecticut (2.47%), Pennsylvania (2.49%) and New Jersey (2.93%). These data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 09/12/15 | 09/05/15 | 08/29/15 | Y/Y % | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 264 | 275 | 281 | -18.0 | 309 | 343 | 374 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 2,237 | 2,263 | -10.7 | 2,599 | 2,978 | 3,319 |
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.9 (8/14) |
2.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 |