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Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Fell Back in February, but Still in Recent Range
The NAR U.S. Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index decreased 7.6% (-1.4% y/y) in February to 173.1...
European New Car Registrations Remarkably Strong Yet Forgettable
Car registrations are not going to be the only statistic that bears these dual and seemingly dueling characteristics...
U.S. Retail Sales Soar in March
Total retail sales including food service and drinking establishments increased 9.8% (27.7% y/y) during March...
U.S. Industrial Production Rebounded in March
Industrial production rebounded in March, rising 1.4% m/m (+1.0% y/y)...
U.S. Home Builder Index Edges Higher in April
The NAHB-Wells Fargo Composite Housing Market Index rose 1.2% to 83 during April...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller September 3, 2015
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Composite Index of Nonmanufacturing Sector Business eased to 59.0 during August from an unrevised 60.3 in July. These figures are the highest since the middle of 2005. Consensus expectations had been for 58.2 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Haver Analytics constructs a Composite Index using the nonmanufacturing ISM index and the ISM factory sector measure, released Tuesday. It also dipped to 58.0, but remained near the highest level since August 2005. During the last ten years, there has been a 73% correlation between the index and the q/q change in real GDP.
Each of the component series declined moderately last month. The business activity reading eased to 63.9, still nearly the highest level since January 2004. The new orders reading slipped to 63.4. The employment index fell to 56.0 from its July high. During the last ten years, there has been an 88% correlation between the employment index and the m/m change in service plus construction payrolls. The supplier delivery index eased to 52.5 and indicated slightly faster delivery speeds.
The prices paid series declined to 52.5, remaining above the break-even level of 50 for the sixth straight month. Eleven percent (NSA) of respondents paid higher prices while 12 percent paid less.
The export order series (NSA) declined moderately as imports rose, but remained down versus July 2004. The inventory series eased m/m but still indicated a firm rate of accumulation.
The ISM data are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure from Action Economics is in the AS1REPNA database.
ISM Nonmanufacturing Survey (SA) | Aug | Jul | Jun | Aug'14 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Composite Diffusion Index | 59.0 | 60.3 | 56.0 | 58.6 | 56.3 | 54.6 | 54.6 |
Business Activity | 63.9 | 64.9 | 61.5 | 63.1 | 59.7 | 56.7 | 57.6 |
New Orders | 63.4 | 63.8 | 58.3 | 62.1 | 58.6 | 55.8 | 56.5 |
Employment | 56.0 | 59.6 | 52.7 | 56.6 | 54.9 | 54.3 | 53.5 |
Supplier Deliveries (NSA) | 52.5 | 53.0 | 51.5 | 52.5 | 51.8 | 51.7 | 50.6 |
Prices Index | 50.8 | 53.7 | 53.0 | 57.3 | 56.8 | 55.6 | 59.3 |