Recent Updates
- US: Wholesale Trade (Feb), Producer Prices (Mar)
- US: Producer Price Indexes by Commodity Detail (Mar)
- US: Producer Price Indexes by Industry Detail (Mar)
- Canada: Investment in Building Construction (Feb), Labor Force Survey (Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Wholesale Inventories Post Strong February Gain; Sales Fall
Wholesale inventories increased 0.6% (2.0% y/y) during February...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Unexpectedly Increase
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 744,000 during the week ended April 3...
Total PMIs Gain Traction in March
The PMI readings for March show improvement again...
U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Bounces Back in February
Consumer credit outstanding surged $27.6 billion during February...
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to Record during February
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $71.1 during February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller August 24, 2015
The Chicago Federal Reserve reported that its National Activity Index (CFNAI) during July jumped to 0.34 from -0.07 in June, revised from 0.08. The rise to the highest level since last November pulled the three-month moving average to break-even, its best level since January. During the last ten years, there has been a 77% correlation between the Chicago Fed Index and the q/q change in real GDP.
A rise in the Production & Income component was responsible for most of the gain in the overall index. It's increase to 0.28 from -0.14 brought it to the highest level since November. The Personal Consumption & Housing series rose to a firm -0.06 from -0.10 but the Employment, Unemployment & Hours figure remained unchanged at 0.11, still the highest point since February. The Sales, Orders & Inventories reading eased to 0.01 from 0.06. The Fed reported that 50 of the 85 component series made positive contributions to the total while 35 made negative contributions.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.
The Chicago Federal Reserve figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
Chicago Federal Reserve Bank | Jul | Jun | May | Jul '14 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CFNAI | 0.34 | -0.07 | -0.29 | 0.50 | 0.21 | 0.01 | -0.05 |
3-Month Moving Average | 0.00 | -0.08 | -0.12 | 0.30 | -- | -- | -- |
Personal Consumption & Housing | -0.06 | -0.10 | -0.07 | -0.11 | -0.11 | -0.14 | -0.20 |
Employment, Unemployment & Hours | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 0.18 | 0.10 | 0.09 |
Production & Income | 0.28 | -0.14 | -0.12 | 0.23 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.06 |
Sales, Orders & Inventories | 0.01 | 0.06 | -0.17 | 0.28 | 0.04 | 0.03 | -0.00 |