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Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Fell Back in February, but Still in Recent Range
The NAR U.S. Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index decreased 7.6% (-1.4% y/y) in February to 173.1...
European New Car Registrations Remarkably Strong Yet Forgettable
Car registrations are not going to be the only statistic that bears these dual and seemingly dueling characteristics...
U.S. Retail Sales Soar in March
Total retail sales including food service and drinking establishments increased 9.8% (27.7% y/y) during March...
U.S. Industrial Production Rebounded in March
Industrial production rebounded in March, rising 1.4% m/m (+1.0% y/y)...
U.S. Home Builder Index Edges Higher in April
The NAHB-Wells Fargo Composite Housing Market Index rose 1.2% to 83 during April...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller August 20, 2015
The job market continues to expand. First time claims for unemployment insurance rose to 277,000 (-7.9% y/y) during the week ended August 15 from 273,000 in the week earlier, initially reported as 274,000. The four-week moving average rose slightly from the expansion low to 271,500. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 270,000 initial claims in the latest week.
The latest initial claims figure covers the survey period for August nonfarm payrolls and they rose 22,000 (8.6%) from the July period. During the last ten years, there has been a 76% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 1.7%, near the lowest point since June 2000.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance eased to 2.254 million (-10.5% y/y) from 2.278 million. The four-week moving average rose to 2.265 million, but has been moving sideways for two months.
By state, the insured rate of unemployment continued to vary greatly with Nebraska (0.75%), Virginia (0.84%), Florida (0.95%), Georgia (0.97%), Tennessee (1.05%) and Texas (1.64%) near the low end of the range. At the high end were Massachusetts (2.11%), West Virginia (2.13%), California (2.37%), Pennsylvania (2.59%), Connecticut (2.65%) and New Jersey (2.95%). These data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 08/15/15 | 08/08/15 | 08/01/15 | Y/Y % | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 277 | 273 | 269 | -7.9 | 309 | 343 | 374 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 2,254 | 2,278 | -10.5 | 2,599 | 2,978 | 3,319 |
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.9 (8/14) |
2.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 |