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Economy in Brief
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The price of regular gasoline eased to $2.85 per gallon (+53.8% y/y) in the week ended April 12...
U.S. Government Budget Deficit Widens During March
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $659.6 billion during March...
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The FIBER Industrial Materials Price Index increased 0.9% during the four weeks ended April 9...
EMU Retail Sales Jump, Regaining Some of the January Drop
February finds EU retail sales and motor vehicle registration rebounding...
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The Producer Price Index for final demand jumped 1.0% (4.2% y/y) during March...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Monetary Policy Blunder: Not Managing Economic & Financial Outcomes Equally
Monetary Policy at a Crossroad: Policymakers Need to Break Promise of Easy Money to Avoid Boom-Bust
State Coincident Indexes in January
Data Surprises, Markets and COVID
by Tom Moeller August 13, 2015
Overall retail sales including food services & drinking places during July increased 0.6% (2.9% y/y). The rise followed upwardly-revised readings of no change and 1.2% in June and May, earlier reported as a 0.3% decline and a 1.0% gain. The July rise matched the increase in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales excluding autos improved an expected 0.4% (1.7% y/y) following a like gain during June and a 1.0% May increase, revised from -0.1% and +0.8%. During the last ten years, there has been a 92% correlation between the y/y change in retail sales and the change in real GDP.
Sales in the retail control group exclude autos, gasoline, building materials & food services. They align with the consumer spending estimates in the GDP accounts. Sales in this grouping improved 0.3% (3.6% y/y) after gains of 0.2% and 0.8%, earlier reported as a 0.1% decline and a 0.7% rise.
Building materials & garden equipment sales increased 0.7% (2.2% y/y) following two months of 0.2% improvement. Light motor vehicle sales increased 1.4% (7.2% y/y) and made up June's decline. The rise compared to a 3.3% increase in unit sales of cars and light trucks.
In other discretionary spending categories, internet sales recovered 1.5% (6.9% y/y) after a 0.2% dip. Sporting goods, hobby shop, book & music store sales increased 0.9% (7.7% y/y) and more than made up a 0.3% dip. Sales of furniture & home furnishings increased 0.8% (6.6% y/y) following a 1.0% decline. Restaurant sales increased 0.7% (9.8% y/y) after a 0.5% rise and apparel store sales increased 0.4% (3.6% y/y) after a 0.9% drop. Gasoline service station sales rose 0.4% (-14.6% y/y) following two months of strong gain. To the downside, purchases at electronics & appliance stores fell 1.2% (-2.9% y/y) and reversed the June improvement. General merchandise sales were off 0.5% (+1.5% y/y) after a 0.8% rise.
In the nondiscretionary categories, health & personal care store sales rose 0.3% (3.4% y/y) following a 0.8% decrease. Food & beverage store sales remained roughly unchanged (3.3% y/y) for the second straight month.
The retail sales figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
Retail Spending (%) | Jul | Jun | May | Jul Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.6 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 5.0 |
Excluding Autos | 0.4 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 4.1 |
Non-Auto Less Gasoline, Building Supplies & Food Services | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 3.6 |
Retail Sales | 0.6 | -0.1 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 4.9 |
Motor Vehicle & Parts | 1.4 | -1.5 | 1.9 | 7.2 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 9.0 |
Retail Less Autos | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 3.9 |
Gasoline Stations | 0.4 | 1.8 | 3.9 | -14.6 | -2.7 | -0.7 | 4.3 |
Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 9.8 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 5.9 |