Recent Updates

  • Euro area: Bank Lending Survey (Q1); Consumer Confidence (Jan-Flash)
  • Greece: Travel Balance of Payments (Nov)
  • Turkey: Consumer Confidence (Jan); Israel: Exports of Services (Nov); South Africa: Business Cycle Indicators (Nov); Qatar: Real Estate Price Index (Dec), Banks Monthly Statements (Dec); Kenya: Foreign Trade, Depository Corporation Survey (Nov)
  • Kazakhstan: Bank Loans, Lending and Deposit Rates, Bank Loans by Type, Banking System Monetary Survey, Monetary Aggregates (Dec);
  • more updates...

Economy in Brief

U.S. Budget Deficit Deepens as Spending Ramps Up
by Tom Moeller  August 12, 2015

The Federal Government reported a $149.2 billion budget deficit during July compared to a $94.6 billion deficit during July of 2014. A $129.8 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. For the first ten months of Fiscal Year 2015, the budget deficit increased to $465.5 billion compared to a $460.5 billion deficit in the first ten months of FY 2014. Projections from the Office Of Management & Budget (OMB) call for a budget deficit of $454.5 billion in FY 2015 compared to $483.4 billion last year, then a $429.4 billion deficit in FY 2016.

Government spending growth so far this fiscal year of 6.9% y/y compared to a 1.4% advance during all of FY 2014. It reflected a 30.4% y/y rise in spending for Education, Training, Employment & Social Services. Growth in outlays on health programs strengthened to 17.6% y/y with the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. Medicare spending growth ramped up to 13.3% y/y while veterans benefits & services growth picked up to 12.3% y/y. Social Security payments growth was steady at 4.4% y/y and income security payments nudged just 0.6% higher y/y. These gains were countered by a 0.9% y/y decline in defense outlays while interest payments fell 3.0% y/y.

Quicker growth in outlays was accompanied by lessened 8.0% y/y growth in overall fiscal year-to-date revenues. So far this fiscal year, individual income taxes strengthened 11.6% y/y but growth in corporate income taxes eased to 9.4% y/y. Improved labor markets left social insurance taxes & contributions growing a lessened 3.8% y/y while excise taxes rose 1.6% y/y.

Haver's basic data on Federal Government outlays and receipts are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.

 US Government Finance Jul FY'14 FY'13 FY'12 FY'11
Budget Balance -- $-149.2 bil. $483.4 bil. $-680.2 bil. $-1,089.2 bil. $-1,296.8 bil.
  As a percent of GDP -- -- 2.8 4.1 6.8 8.4
% of Total FY'15 YTD
Net Revenues (Y/Y % Change) 100 8.0% 8.9% 13.3% 6.4% 6.5%
  Individual Income Taxes 47 11.6 5.9 16.3 3.7 21.5
  Corporate Income Taxes 10 9.4 17.3 12.9 33.8 -5.4
  Social Insurance Taxes 34 3.8 8.0 12.1 3.2 -5.3
  Excise Taxes 3 1.6 11.1 6.3 9.2 8.2
Net Outlays (Y/Y % Change) 100 6.9 1.4 -2.4 -1.7 4.1
  National Defense 18 -0.9 -4.7 -6.3 -3.9 1.7
  Health 10 17.6 14.2 3.1 -7.0 1.0
  Medicare 14 13.3 2.8 5.5 -2.8 7.5
  Income Security 16 0.6 -4.3 -1.1 -9.1 -4.1
  Social Security 24 4.4 4.6 5.2 5.8 3.4
  Veterans Benefits & Services 4 12.3 7.7 11.5 -2.0 17.3
  Education, Training, Employment & Social Services 3 30.4 25.9 -21.9 -10.3 -20.6
  Interest 6 -3.0 3.0 0.4 -3.0 15.8
close
large image