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Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Fell Back in February, but Still in Recent Range
The NAR U.S. Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index decreased 7.6% (-1.4% y/y) in February to 173.1...
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Car registrations are not going to be the only statistic that bears these dual and seemingly dueling characteristics...
U.S. Retail Sales Soar in March
Total retail sales including food service and drinking establishments increased 9.8% (27.7% y/y) during March...
U.S. Industrial Production Rebounded in March
Industrial production rebounded in March, rising 1.4% m/m (+1.0% y/y)...
U.S. Home Builder Index Edges Higher in April
The NAHB-Wells Fargo Composite Housing Market Index rose 1.2% to 83 during April...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller August 5, 2015
The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls improved 185,000 during July (2.3% y/y) following a downwardly revised 229,000 June increase. The gain fell short of consensus expectations for a 210,000 increase in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 97% correlation between the change in the ADP figure and the change in nonfarm private sector payrolls.
The ADP survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 411,000 companies and nearly 24 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data.
Small-sized payrolls improved 59,000 (2.6% y/y), the weakest reading since a decline in December 2013. Medium-sized payrolls added 62,000 (2.2% y/y). Large payrolls strengthened 64,000 (1.8% y/y), the largest increase since December.
Employment in the goods-producing sector rose a lessened 8,000 (1.8% y/y). Hiring in construction posted a smaller 15,000 increase (4.8% y/y). Manufacturing sector jobs improved a modest 2,000 (0.9% y/y). Jobs in the service sector increased 178,000 (2.3% y/y), the weakest gain in three months. Jobs in professional & business services improved 42,000 (2.8% y/y) and trade, transportation & utilities employment increased 25,000 (1.9% y/y), the weakest rise since March 2013. Employment in the financial sector rose 10,000 (1.7% y/y).
The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to April 2001. The figures in this report cover jobs only in the private sector. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
ADP/Moody's National Employment Report | Jul | Jun | May | Jul Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) | 185 | 229 | 197 | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.3% |
Small Payroll (1-49) | 59 | 120 | 120 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.5 |
Medium Payroll (50-499) | 62 | 86 | 63 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 2.1 |
Large Payroll (>500) | 64 | 32 | 19 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 2.1 |
Goods-Producing | 8 | 12 | 11 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 2.2 |
Construction | 15 | 19 | 28 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 2.5 |
Manufacturing | 2 | 7 | -2 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.6 |
Service-Producing | 178 | 225 | 192 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.3 |