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Economy in Brief

U.S. ADP: Payroll Employment Increase Softens
by Tom Moeller  August 5, 2015

The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls improved 185,000 during July (2.3% y/y) following a downwardly revised 229,000 June increase. The gain fell short of consensus expectations for a 210,000 increase in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 97% correlation between the change in the ADP figure and the change in nonfarm private sector payrolls.

The ADP survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 411,000 companies and nearly 24 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data.

Small-sized payrolls improved 59,000 (2.6% y/y), the weakest reading since a decline in December 2013. Medium-sized payrolls added 62,000 (2.2% y/y). Large payrolls strengthened 64,000 (1.8% y/y), the largest increase since December.

Employment in the goods-producing sector rose a lessened 8,000 (1.8% y/y). Hiring in construction posted a smaller 15,000 increase (4.8% y/y). Manufacturing sector jobs improved a modest 2,000 (0.9% y/y). Jobs in the service sector increased 178,000 (2.3% y/y), the weakest gain in three months. Jobs in professional & business services improved 42,000 (2.8% y/y) and trade, transportation & utilities employment increased 25,000 (1.9% y/y), the weakest rise since March 2013. Employment in the financial sector rose 10,000 (1.7% y/y).

The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to April 2001. The figures in this report cover jobs only in the private sector. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.

ADP/Moody's National Employment Report Jul Jun May Jul Y/Y 2014 2013 2012
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) 185 229 197 2.3% 2.3% 1.9% 2.3%
 Small Payroll (1-49) 59 120 120 2.6 2.1 1.9 2.5
 Medium Payroll (50-499) 62 86 63 2.2 2.8 2.2 2.1
 Large Payroll (>500) 64 32 19 1.8 1.8 1.6 2.1
Goods-Producing 8 12 11 1.8 2.3 1.7 2.2
  Construction 15 19 28 4.8 4.6 3.5 2.5
  Manufacturing 2 7 -2 0.9 1.2 0.9 1.6
Service-Producing 178 225 192 2.3 2.3 2.0 2.3
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