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Economy in Brief
FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Improve Modestly
The FIBER Industrial Materials Price Index increased 0.9% during the four weeks ended April 9...
EMU Retail Sales Jump, Regaining Some of the January Drop
February finds EU retail sales and motor vehicle registration rebounding...
U.S. PPI Posts Broad-Based Strength in March
The Producer Price Index for final demand jumped 1.0% (4.2% y/y) during March...
U.S. Wholesale Inventories Post Strong February Gain; Sales Fall
Wholesale inventories increased 0.6% (2.0% y/y) during February...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Unexpectedly Increase
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 744,000 during the week ended April 3...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Monetary Policy Blunder: Not Managing Economic & Financial Outcomes Equally
Monetary Policy at a Crossroad: Policymakers Need to Break Promise of Easy Money to Avoid Boom-Bust
State Coincident Indexes in January
Data Surprises, Markets and COVID
by Tom Moeller July 31, 2015
Chicago purchasing managers reported that their July Business Barometer Index improved to 54.7 following an unrevised rise to 49.4 in June. It was first month in the last three above the break-even level of 50 and the highest level since January. It beat expectations for 50.0 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Haver Analytics constructs an ISM-Adjusted Index using the Chicago numbers, comparable to the overall ISM index to be released Monday. Our figure increased to 53.7, also the highest level since January. During the last ten years, there has been a 61% correlation between the adjusted Chicago Purchasing Managers index and real GDP growth.
A rebounding production series led the overall index higher while new orders gained significantly. The order backlog and inventory series also improved. The employment reading ticked slightly higher but remained near the lowest level since November 2009. During the last ten years, there has been an 82% correlation between the employment figure and the m/m change in factory sector employment. Finally, the vendor deliveries series was fairly stable, still indicating the fastest rate of product delivery in two years.
The index of prices paid improved to the highest level since December. An easier 17 percent (NSA) of respondents paid higher prices and 14 percent paid less.
The MNI Chicago Report is produced by MNI/Deutsche Borse Group in partnership with ISM-Chicago. The survey covers a sample of over 200 purchasing professionals in the Chicago area with a monthly response rate of about 50%. The ISM-Adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics using these data to construct a figure with the ISM methodology. The figures can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database. The Consensus expectations figure is available in AS1REPNA.
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (%, SA) | Jul | Jun | May | Jun'14 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ISM-Adjusted General Business Barometer | 53.7 | 48.5 | 48.8 | 55.4 | 59.4 | 54.3 | 54.8 |
General Business Barometer | 54.7 | 49.4 | 46.2 | 53.6 | 60.7 | 56.0 | 54.7 |
Production | 61.8 | 49.8 | 45.8 | 52.5 | 64.5 | 58.2 | 57.6 |
New Orders | 58.5 | 51.7 | 47.5 | 56.2 | 63.8 | 59.0 | 55.2 |
Order Backlogs | 47.9 | 41.0 | 47.3 | 48.2 | 54.2 | 48.8 | 48.1 |
Inventories | 53.3 | 46.9 | 53.3 | 55.7 | 56.0 | 45.7 | 51.4 |
Employment | 46.2 | 45.7 | 48.0 | 58.5 | 56.1 | 55.5 | 55.4 |
Supplier Deliveries | 48.7 | 48.5 | 49.5 | 54.1 | 56.5 | 52.5 | 54.8 |
Prices Paid | 54.5 | 53.3 | 51.2 | 59.7 | 61.0 | 59.8 | 62.3 |