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Economy in Brief

U.S. Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Rise from 1973 Low
by Tom Moeller  July 30, 2015

Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 267,000 (-10.6% y/y) during the week ended July 25 from an unrevised 255,000 during the prior week. The latest figure was just above the lowest since November 1973. The four-week moving average fell to 274,750. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 272,000 initial claims. During the last ten years, there has been a 76% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.

Continuing claims for unemployment insurance notched up to 2.262 million. The four-week moving average eased to 2.255 million.

The insured rate of unemployment backed up to 1.7%, but remained near the lowest point since June 2000.

By state, the insured rate of unemployment continued to vary greatly with South Dakota (0.36%), Indiana (0.80%), Florida (0.90%), New Hampshire (0.90%), South Carolina (0.95%) and Tennessee (1.19%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were Massachusetts (2.14%), California (2.29%), Alaska (2.34%), Pennsylvania (2.59%), Connecticut (2.72%) and New Jersey (3.01%). These data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.

Unemployment Insurance (000s) 07/25/15 07/18/15 07/11/15 Y/Y % 2014 2013 2012
Initial Claims 267 255 281 -10.6 309 343 374
Continuing Claims -- 2,262 2,216 -10.9 2,599 2,978 3,319
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) -- 1.7 1.6 1.9
(7/14)
2.0 2.3 2.6
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