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Economy in Brief
U.S. New Home Sales and Prices Strengthen
Sales of new single-family homes during March increased 4.0% (8.8% y/y) to 694,000 (SAAR)...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Continues to Strengthen
The FHFA index of U.S. house prices rose 0.6% during February...
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $2.80 per gallon last week (14.3% y/y)...
Italian Confidence Backtracks But Remains High-Valued As It Is for France and Germany
From Q1 2008 to date, Italian GDP actually has failed to grow and has declined by 5.8%...
U.S. Existing Home Sales & Prices Rise Again
The NAR reported that sales of existing homes increased 1.1% during March (-1.2% y/y) to 5.600 million units (AR)...
by Tom Moeller July 14, 2015
Overall retail sales including food services & drinking places during June declined 0.3% (2.9% y/y) following downwardly revised readings of 1.0% and no change during May and April, earlier reported as 1.2% and 0.2%. The June decline disappointed expectations for a 0.3% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales excluding autos eased 0.1% (+1.1% y/y) following a 0.8% May increase, revised from 1.0%. The gain missed expectations for a 0.6% rise. During the last ten years, there has been a 92% correlation between the y/y change in retail sales and the change in real GDP.
Sales in the retail control group exclude autos, gasoline, building materials & food services. They align with the consumer spending estimates in the GDP accounts. Sales in this grouping were off 0.1% (+3.3% y/y) after an unrevised 0.7% May rise.
Building materials & garden equipment led total sales lower with a 1.3% decline (+1.7% y/y), the third consecutive monthly shortfall. Fewer sales of light motor vehicles followed with a 1.1% decline (+9.9% y/y) after a 1.8% May rise. The decline compared to a 3.5% drop in unit sales of cars and light trucks.
In other discretionary spending categories, sales of furniture & home furnishings fell 1.6% (+6.5% y/y) after a 1.4% gain. Apparel store sales declined 1.5% (+2.5% y/y), reversing a 1.4% increase. Restaurant sales eased 0.2% (+7.8% y/y) and have been flat for two months. To the upside, electronics & appliance store sales jumped 1.0% (0.8% y/y) after two months of negligible improvement. Gasoline service station sales rose 0.8% with higher fuel prices (-16.2% y/y) after 3.7% increase. General merchandise sales gained 0.7% (0.9% y/y) and added to a 1.4% jump. Finally, sporting goods sales improved 0.1% (8.9% y/y) after a 0.6% rise.
In the nondiscretionary categories, health & personal care store sales rose 0.2% (3.0% y/y) following a 0.4% decrease. Food & beverage store sales remained roughly unchanged (2.7% y/y) after a 0.5% rise.
The retail sales figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Retail Spending (%) | Jun | May | Apr | Jun Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | -0.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 5.0 |
| Excluding Autos | -0.1 | 0.8 | -0.1 | 1.1 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 4.1 |
| Non-Auto Less Gasoline, Building Supplies & Food Services | -0.1 | 0.7 | -0.1 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 3.6 |
| Retail Sales | -0.3 | 1.1 | -0.1 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 4.9 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | -1.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 9.9 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 9.0 |
| Retail Less Autos | -0.0 | 0.9 | -0.3 | -0.0 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 3.9 |
| Gasoline Stations | 0.8 | 3.7 | -0.9 | -16.2 | -2.7 | -0.7 | 4.3 |
| Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | -0.2 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 7.8 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 5.9 |
