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Economy in Brief
Empire State Manufacturing Sector Improvement Moderates
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions declined to 10.9 in December...
EMU Trade Shows Some Trade Flow Rebound
Trade flows are rebounding on differing dynamics in the euro area...
U.S. Retail Sales Start Holiday Season on Solid Ground
Consumers continued to exhibit their inclination to spend as holiday shopping got underway...
U.S. Industrial Production Rebounds
Industrial production jumped a greater-than-expected 0.6% (3.9% year-on-year) during November...
U.S. Business Inventory Accumulation Picks Up
Total business inventories increased 0.6% (5.1% y/y) during October...
by Tom Moeller July 14, 2015
Overall retail sales including food services & drinking places during June declined 0.3% (2.9% y/y) following downwardly revised readings of 1.0% and no change during May and April, earlier reported as 1.2% and 0.2%. The June decline disappointed expectations for a 0.3% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales excluding autos eased 0.1% (+1.1% y/y) following a 0.8% May increase, revised from 1.0%. The gain missed expectations for a 0.6% rise. During the last ten years, there has been a 92% correlation between the y/y change in retail sales and the change in real GDP.
Sales in the retail control group exclude autos, gasoline, building materials & food services. They align with the consumer spending estimates in the GDP accounts. Sales in this grouping were off 0.1% (+3.3% y/y) after an unrevised 0.7% May rise.
Building materials & garden equipment led total sales lower with a 1.3% decline (+1.7% y/y), the third consecutive monthly shortfall. Fewer sales of light motor vehicles followed with a 1.1% decline (+9.9% y/y) after a 1.8% May rise. The decline compared to a 3.5% drop in unit sales of cars and light trucks.
In other discretionary spending categories, sales of furniture & home furnishings fell 1.6% (+6.5% y/y) after a 1.4% gain. Apparel store sales declined 1.5% (+2.5% y/y), reversing a 1.4% increase. Restaurant sales eased 0.2% (+7.8% y/y) and have been flat for two months. To the upside, electronics & appliance store sales jumped 1.0% (0.8% y/y) after two months of negligible improvement. Gasoline service station sales rose 0.8% with higher fuel prices (-16.2% y/y) after 3.7% increase. General merchandise sales gained 0.7% (0.9% y/y) and added to a 1.4% jump. Finally, sporting goods sales improved 0.1% (8.9% y/y) after a 0.6% rise.
In the nondiscretionary categories, health & personal care store sales rose 0.2% (3.0% y/y) following a 0.4% decrease. Food & beverage store sales remained roughly unchanged (2.7% y/y) after a 0.5% rise.
The retail sales figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Retail Spending (%) | Jun | May | Apr | Jun Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | -0.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 5.0 |
| Excluding Autos | -0.1 | 0.8 | -0.1 | 1.1 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 4.1 |
| Non-Auto Less Gasoline, Building Supplies & Food Services | -0.1 | 0.7 | -0.1 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 3.6 |
| Retail Sales | -0.3 | 1.1 | -0.1 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 4.9 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | -1.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 9.9 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 9.0 |
| Retail Less Autos | -0.0 | 0.9 | -0.3 | -0.0 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 3.9 |
| Gasoline Stations | 0.8 | 3.7 | -0.9 | -16.2 | -2.7 | -0.7 | 4.3 |
| Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | -0.2 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 7.8 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 5.9 |
