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Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Fell Back in February, but Still in Recent Range
The NAR U.S. Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index decreased 7.6% (-1.4% y/y) in February to 173.1...
European New Car Registrations Remarkably Strong Yet Forgettable
Car registrations are not going to be the only statistic that bears these dual and seemingly dueling characteristics...
U.S. Retail Sales Soar in March
Total retail sales including food service and drinking establishments increased 9.8% (27.7% y/y) during March...
U.S. Industrial Production Rebounded in March
Industrial production rebounded in March, rising 1.4% m/m (+1.0% y/y)...
U.S. Home Builder Index Edges Higher in April
The NAHB-Wells Fargo Composite Housing Market Index rose 1.2% to 83 during April...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller July 9, 2015
Initial unemployment insurance claims increased to 297,000 (-5.9% y/y) during the week ended July 4 from 282,000 during the prior week, revised from 281,000. The four week moving average rose to 279,500, the highest level since early-May. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 275,000 initial claims. During the last ten years, there has been a 76% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose to 2.334 million (-10.5% y/y) in the latest week, the highest level since March. The four-week moving average increased to 2.268 million.
The insured rate of unemployment held at 1.7%.
By state, the insured rate of unemployment continued to vary greatly with South Dakota (0.29%), Indiana (0.77%), Virginia (0.82%), South Carolina (0.85%), Florida (0.85%) and Tennessee (1.05%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were Massachusetts (1.91%), Illinois (1.95%), Connecticut (2.24%), California (2.31%), Pennsylvania (2.33%) and New Jersey (2.44%). These data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
The Recovery's Final Frontier? is the title of yesterday's speech by John C. Williams, President & CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and it can be found here.
Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 07/04/15 | 06/27/15 | 06/20/15 | Y/Y % | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 297 | 282 | 271 | -5.9 | 309 | 343 | 374 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 2,334 | 2,265 | -10.5 | 2,599 | 2,978 | 3,319 |
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.0 (6/14) |
2.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 |