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Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Fell Back in February, but Still in Recent Range
The NAR U.S. Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index decreased 7.6% (-1.4% y/y) in February to 173.1...
European New Car Registrations Remarkably Strong Yet Forgettable
Car registrations are not going to be the only statistic that bears these dual and seemingly dueling characteristics...
U.S. Retail Sales Soar in March
Total retail sales including food service and drinking establishments increased 9.8% (27.7% y/y) during March...
U.S. Industrial Production Rebounded in March
Industrial production rebounded in March, rising 1.4% m/m (+1.0% y/y)...
U.S. Home Builder Index Edges Higher in April
The NAHB-Wells Fargo Composite Housing Market Index rose 1.2% to 83 during April...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller July 7, 2015
The job openings rate during May held steady at 3.6% as April's rate was revised lower from 3.7%. Both remained improved from the recession low of 1.6%. The latest was just below the series' high of 3.8% in January 2001. The job openings rate is the number of job openings on the last business day of the month as a percent of total employment plus job openings. Failing to keep pace was the hires rate, which fell to 3.5% from an upwardly revised 3.6%. Both readings were down from the December high of 3.7% The hires rate is the number of hires during the month divided by employment. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports these figures in its Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).
The actual number of job openings surged 16.4% y/y to 5.363 million versus 5.334 million in April. Hiring growth eased to 4.1% y/y. May's level of 5.000 million was down from December's high of 5.239 million.
The private-sector job openings rate held steady at 3.9%, improved from the recession low of 1.7%. The rate in professional & business services rose to a recovery high of 5.3% while the rate in leisure & hospitality gained to 4.6%, just below the cycle high. In health care & social services, the rate eased from its eight-year high to 4.5% and in trade, transportation & utilities, it improved to a record high of 3.5%. The rate in the factory sector rose to 2.7%, the highest level since January 2001 and the construction sector's rate rose to 2.3%. The job openings rate in the government sector improved to 2.3%, higher than the 2009 low of 1.1%.
The private sector hires rate held at 3.9%, down from the December high of 4.1%. Amongst leisure & hospitality firms, the rate improved to 6.1% but the rate in professional & business services slipped to 5.1%. The construction sector rate eased to 5.0%, remaining down from the December high of 7.0%. In retail trade, it recovered m/m to 4.8%. The hiring rate in education & health services rose to 2.8% and in the factory sector, it declined to 1.9%, the lowest level since February of last year. In the government sector, the hiring rate held at 1.5% for the third month.
The number of hires declined 0.7% m/m (+4.1% y/y). Private sector hires fell 0.6% (+3.3% y/y). Trade, transportation & utilities jobs eased 0.6% y/y. That was accompanied by a 0.3% dip in construction employment and a 6.5% increase in leisure & hospitality hiring. Health care & social services employment improved 7.7% y/y while professional & business services jobs increased 5.8% y/y. Factory sector jobs eased 0.4% y/y but government sector hiring jumped 14.9% y/y.
The job separations rate plummeted to 3.3% but the actual number of separations increased 4.4% y/y. Separations include quits, layoffs, discharges, and other separations as well as retirements. The private sector separations rate fell sharply to 3.7% while the government sector's rate eased to 1.4% after four months at 1.5%. The layoff & discharge rate declined to 1.2%. The private sector layoff rate returned to its lowest level since November 2013 and the government's rate eased to 1.3%, equaling the lowest since October 2013.
The JOLTS survey dates to December 2000 and the figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
Finding Normal: Natural Rates and Policy Prescriptions from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here.
JOLTS (Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey, SA) | May | Apr | Mar | May '14 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Job Openings, Total | |||||||
Rate (%) | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 2.6 |
Total (000s) | 5,363 | 5,334 | 5,109 | 16.4% | 22.6% | 9.3% | 3.2% |
Hires, Total | |||||||
Rate (%) | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 42.2 | 39.8 | 38.8 |
Total (000s) | 5,000 | 5,034 | 5,088 | 4.1% | 8.4% | 3.4% | 4.2% |
Layoffs & Discharges, Total | |||||||
Rate (%) | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 14.5 | 14.6 | 15.5 |
Total (000s) | 1,653 | 1,784 | 1,894 | -0.4 | 2.4% | -4.9% | 1.1% |