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Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Prices Ease Broadly
The price of regular gasoline eased to $2.85 per gallon (+53.8% y/y) in the week ended April 12...
U.S. Government Budget Deficit Widens During March
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $659.6 billion during March...
FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Improve Modestly
The FIBER Industrial Materials Price Index increased 0.9% during the four weeks ended April 9...
EMU Retail Sales Jump, Regaining Some of the January Drop
February finds EU retail sales and motor vehicle registration rebounding...
U.S. PPI Posts Broad-Based Strength in March
The Producer Price Index for final demand jumped 1.0% (4.2% y/y) during March...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Monetary Policy Blunder: Not Managing Economic & Financial Outcomes Equally
Monetary Policy at a Crossroad: Policymakers Need to Break Promise of Easy Money to Avoid Boom-Bust
State Coincident Indexes in January
Data Surprises, Markets and COVID
by Tom Moeller July 6, 2015
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Composite Index of Nonmanufacturing Sector Business during June matched expectations and improved slightly to 56.0 from 55.7 in May. Nevertheless, the latest figure remained nearly the lowest since April of last year.
Haver Analytics constructs a Composite Index using the nonmanufacturing ISM index and the ISM factory sector measure, released Wednesday. It notched up to 55.7 but also remained near the lowest level since last April. During the last ten years, there has been a 72% correlation between the index and the q/q change in real GDP.
The supplier delivery index improved last month, showing slightly slower delivery speeds, following its May collapse. The business activity and new orders series also improved modestly. The employment index deteriorated again to its lowest point since January. During the last ten years, there has been an 88% correlation between the employment index and the m/m change in service plus construction payrolls.
The prices paid series back-pedaled moderately. Eighteen percent (NSA) of respondents paid higher prices. Ten percent paid lower prices.
The ISM data are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure from Action Economics is in the AS1REPNA database.
| ISM Nonmanufacturing Survey (SA) | Jun | May | Apr | Jun'14 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite Diffusion Index | 56.0 | 55.7 | 57.8 | 56.3 | 56.3 | 54.6 | 54.6 |
| Business Activity | 61.5 | 59.5 | 61.6 | 59.2 | 59.7 | 56.7 | 57.6 |
| New Orders | 58.3 | 57.9 | 59.2 | 60.4 | 58.6 | 55.8 | 56.5 |
| Employment | 52.7 | 55.3 | 56.7 | 54.5 | 54.9 | 54.3 | 53.5 |
| Supplier Deliveries (NSA) | 51.5 | 50.0 | 53.5 | 51.0 | 51.8 | 51.7 | 50.6 |
| Prices Index | 53.0 | 55.9 | 50.1 | 60.1 | 56.8 | 55.6 | 59.3 |
