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Economy in Brief

U.S. Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Nudge Higher
by Tom Moeller  July 2, 2015

Initial unemployment insurance claims gained to 281,000 (-10.7% y/y) in the week ended June 27 from an unrevised 271,000 in the prior week. The four week moving average ticked up to 274,750, up slightly from the low in May. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 272,000 initial claims in the latest week. During the last ten years, there has been a 76% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.

Continuing claims for unemployment insurance moved up to 2.264 million (-12.8% y/y) in the latest week from 2.249 million. The four-week moving average of 2.253 million was near the lowest level since November 2000.

The insured rate of unemployment held for a second week at 1.7%, just above the cycle low.

By state, the insured rate of unemployment continued to vary greatly with New Hampshire (0.77%), Virginia (0.82%), Florida (0.85%), Georgia (1.01%), Tennessee (1.05%) and Ohio (1.18%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were Massachusetts (1.91%), Connecticut (2.24%), California (2.31%)), Pennsylvania (2.33%), New Jersey (2.44%) and Alaska (2.88%). These data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.

Unemployment Insurance (000s) 06/27/15 06/20/15 06/13/15 Y/Y % 2014 2013 2012
Initial Claims 281 271 268 -10.7 309 343 374
Continuing Claims -- 2,264 2,249 -12.8 2,599 2,978 3,319
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) -- 1.7 1.7 2.0
(6/14)
2.0 2.3 2.6
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