Recent Updates
- US: Wholesale Trade (Feb), Producer Prices (Mar)
- US: Producer Price Indexes by Commodity Detail (Mar)
- US: Producer Price Indexes by Industry Detail (Mar)
- Canada: Investment in Building Construction (Feb), Labor Force Survey (Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Wholesale Inventories Post Strong February Gain; Sales Fall
Wholesale inventories increased 0.6% (2.0% y/y) during February...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Unexpectedly Increase
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 744,000 during the week ended April 3...
Total PMIs Gain Traction in March
The PMI readings for March show improvement again...
U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Bounces Back in February
Consumer credit outstanding surged $27.6 billion during February...
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to Record during February
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $71.1 during February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller July 1, 2015
Factory sector activity is strengthening. The Composite Index from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) rose to 53.5 following an unrevised increase to 52.8 in May. It was the highest level in five months. Nevertheless, the latest figure remained below the August 2014 high of 58.1. Improvement to 53.1 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 73% correlation between the level of the index and the q/q change in real GDP.
Leading last month's rise was strength in the employment index as it rose to the highest level since December. During the last ten years, there has been an 89% correlation between the index level and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls. The inventories reading also was strong as it increased to the highest level in twelve months. The new orders index improved slightly but the production series backed off. The supplier deliveries index fell and indicted the quickest product delivery speeds since April 2012.
The prices reading held steady at the highest level since October. Fourteen percent of respondents indicated higher prices while 15 percent reported them lower. During the last ten years, there has been an 85% correlation between the index and the m/m change in the core intermediate PPI.
The export order index fell to the lowest level in three months while imports also backpedaled. The orders backlog series declined to the lowest level since January.
The figures from the Institute For Supply Management (ISM) are diffusion indexes. A reading above 50 represents growth in factory sector activity. They can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations number is in the AS1REPNA database.
ISM Mfg (SA) | Jun | May | Apr | Jun '14 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Composite Index | 53.5 | 52.8 | 51.5 | 55.7 | 55.7 | 53.8 | 51.7 |
New Orders | 56.0 | 55.8 | 53.5 | 59.1 | 59.0 | 56.9 | 52.9 |
Production | 54.0 | 54.5 | 56.0 | 59.9 | 59.2 | 57.5 | 53.7 |
Employment | 55.5 | 51.7 | 48.3 | 53.9 | 54.5 | 53.2 | 53.8 |
Supplier Deliveries | 48.8 | 50.7 | 50.1 | 52.7 | 55.0 | 51.9 | 50.0 |
Inventories | 53.0 | 51.5 | 49.5 | 53.0 | 50.8 | 49.4 | 48.2 |
Prices Paid Index (NSA) | 49.5 | 49.5 | 40.5 | 58.0 | 55.6 | 53.8 | 53.2 |