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Economy in Brief

U.S. ADP: Payroll Rise Is Strongest This Year
by Tom Moeller  July 1, 2015

The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls improved 237,000 during June following a 203,000 May increase, revised from 201,000. The latest rise was the firmest since December and beat consensus expectations for a 218,000 increase in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years there has been a 97% correlation between the change in the ADP figure and the change in nonfarm private sector payrolls.

The ADP survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 411,000 companies and nearly 24 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data.

Small-sized payrolls improved another 120,000 (2.7% y/y), repeating the firmest increase since December. Medium-sized payrolls rose an improved 86,000 (2.3% y/y). Large payrolls strengthened 12,000 (1.7% y/y), still down from the 80,000 increase nine months ago.

Employment in the goods-producing sector moved up 12,000 (1.9% y/y). Hiring in construction remained firm and posted a 19,000 increase (5.0% y/y). Manufacturing sector jobs rose 7,000 (1.0% y/y) following three straight months of decline. Jobs in the service sector increased 225,000 (2.4% y/y), the strongest gain since November. Jobs in professional & business services improved 61,000 (2.8% y/y) and trade, transportation & utilities employment increased 50,000 (2.0% y/y). Employment in the financial sector rose 18,000 (1.8% y/y), the strongest increase since March 2006.

The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to April 2001. The figures in this report cover jobs only in the private sector. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.

ADP/Moody's National Employment Report Jun May Apr Jun Y/Y 2014 2013 2012
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) 237 203 179 2.3% 2.3% 1.9% 2.3%
 Small Payroll (1-49) 120 120 102 2.7 2.1 1.9 2.5
 Medium Payroll (50-499) 86 63 70 2.3 2.8 2.2 2.1
 Large Payroll (>500) 32 19 7 1.7 1.8 1.6 2.1
Goods-Producing 12 11 2 1.9 2.3 1.7 2.2
  Construction 19 28 25 5.0 4.6 3.5 2.5
  Manufacturing 7 -2 -6 1.0 1.2 0.9 1.6
Service-Producing 225 192 177 2.4 2.3 2.0 2.3
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