Recent Updates
- Euro area: CSPP Holdings Detail (Q1)
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Apr-prelim), New Residential Constr (Mar)
- Hong Kong: Personal Bankruptcy Petitions, Clearing Transactions (Mar)
- Canada: Wholesale Trade (Feb)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Fell Back in February, but Still in Recent Range
The NAR U.S. Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index decreased 7.6% (-1.4% y/y) in February to 173.1...
European New Car Registrations Remarkably Strong Yet Forgettable
Car registrations are not going to be the only statistic that bears these dual and seemingly dueling characteristics...
U.S. Retail Sales Soar in March
Total retail sales including food service and drinking establishments increased 9.8% (27.7% y/y) during March...
U.S. Industrial Production Rebounded in March
Industrial production rebounded in March, rising 1.4% m/m (+1.0% y/y)...
U.S. Home Builder Index Edges Higher in April
The NAHB-Wells Fargo Composite Housing Market Index rose 1.2% to 83 during April...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller June 25, 2015
A firmer labor market was behind today's report of strong personal spending and income. Initial unemployment insurance claims remained near the cycle low in the latest week. A small rise to 271,000 during the week of June 20 left the four week moving average down for a second period to 273,750, up just slightly from the dead low in May. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 272,000 initial claims in the latest week. During the last ten years, there has been a 76% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance ticked up to 2.247 million (-12.8% y/y) in the latest week from 2.225 million. The four-week moving average of 2.237 million was near the lowest level since November 2000.
The insured rate of unemployment held for a second week at 1.7%, just above the cycle low.
By state, the insured rate of unemployment continued to vary greatly with New Hampshire (0.76%), Florida (0.80%), Virginia (0.82%), Georgia (1.02%), Tennessee (1.03%) and Ohio (1.16%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were Massachusetts (1.94%), Pennsylvania (1.94%), California (2.24%), Connecticut (2.25%), New Jersey (2.40%) and Alaska (2.96%). These data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 06/20/15 | 06/13/15 | 06/06/15 | Y/Y % | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 271 | 268 | 279 | -13.4 | 309 | 343 | 374 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 2,247 | 2,225 | -12.8 | 2,599 | 2,978 | 3,319 |
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.0 (6/14) |
2.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 |