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Economy in Brief
U.S. Wholesale Inventories Post Strong February Gain; Sales Fall
Wholesale inventories increased 0.6% (2.0% y/y) during February...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Unexpectedly Increase
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 744,000 during the week ended April 3...
Total PMIs Gain Traction in March
The PMI readings for March show improvement again...
U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Bounces Back in February
Consumer credit outstanding surged $27.6 billion during February...
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to Record during February
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $71.1 during February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller June 23, 2015
New orders for durable goods declined 1.8% during May (-5.0% y/y) following a 1.5% April fall, earlier reported as -0.5%. Expectations were for a 0.5% dip in orders for total durable goods in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Orders for transportation equipment fell 6.4% (-9.6% y/y) as nondefense aircraft bookings were off by roughly one third (-59.9% y/y). Orders excluding transportation equipment rose 0.5% (-2.9% y/y). During the last ten years, there has been an 88% correlation between the y/y change in orders and the change in real GDP.
Machinery orders nudged 0.8% higher (-2.4% y/y) following a 0.4% rise. Orders for computers & electronic products rose 8.3% (6.3% y/y) and added to a 4.3% increase. Electrical equipment orders slipped 0.4% (-1.8% y/y) following a 2.3% decline.
Nondefense capital goods orders fell 6.6% (-11.0% y/y) following a 2.0% decline. Orders excluding the notably volatile aircraft sector gained 0.4% (-2.0% y/y) after a 0.3% dip.
Shipments of durable goods slipped 0.1% (+0.7% y/y) following a 0.2% decline. Shipments excluding transportation edged 0.3% higher (-1.3% y/y) after a 0.1% dip. Unfilled orders eased 0.5% (+5.7% y/y) after a 0.2% decline. Backlogs less the transportation sector dipped 0.2% (+2.5% y/y) following a 0.4% dip. Inventories of durable goods eased 0.2% (+3.7% y/y) following a 0.2% rise and excluding transportation they also were 0.2% lower (+2.6% y/y).
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Durable Goods NAICS Classification | May | Apr | Mar | May Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Orders (SA, %) | -1.8 | -1.5 | 5.1 | -5.0 | 6.8 | 2.0 | 6.7 |
Transportation | -6.4 | -4.0 | 15.1 | -9.6 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 17.0 |
Total Excluding Transportation | 0.5 | -0.3 | 0.6 | -2.9 | 7.3 | -0.2 | 2.4 |
Nondefense Capital Goods | -6.6 | -2.0 | 7.4 | -11.0 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 11.2 |
Excluding Aircraft | 0.4 | -0.3 | 1.6 | -2.0 | 6.5 | -1.3 | 8.1 |
Shipments | -0.1 | -0.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 6.6 |
Inventories | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 3.7 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 3.8 |
Unfilled Orders | -0.5 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 5.7 | 11.5 | 6.5 | 7.8 |