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Japan's Trade Deficit Swings Back to Surplus (Small Surplus)
Japan's early June trade results show a goods trade position having swung back to surplus in June from deficit in May...
by Tom Moeller June 23, 2015
New orders for durable goods declined 1.8% during May (-5.0% y/y) following a 1.5% April fall, earlier reported as -0.5%. Expectations were for a 0.5% dip in orders for total durable goods in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Orders for transportation equipment fell 6.4% (-9.6% y/y) as nondefense aircraft bookings were off by roughly one third (-59.9% y/y). Orders excluding transportation equipment rose 0.5% (-2.9% y/y). During the last ten years, there has been an 88% correlation between the y/y change in orders and the change in real GDP.
Machinery orders nudged 0.8% higher (-2.4% y/y) following a 0.4% rise. Orders for computers & electronic products rose 8.3% (6.3% y/y) and added to a 4.3% increase. Electrical equipment orders slipped 0.4% (-1.8% y/y) following a 2.3% decline.
Nondefense capital goods orders fell 6.6% (-11.0% y/y) following a 2.0% decline. Orders excluding the notably volatile aircraft sector gained 0.4% (-2.0% y/y) after a 0.3% dip.
Shipments of durable goods slipped 0.1% (+0.7% y/y) following a 0.2% decline. Shipments excluding transportation edged 0.3% higher (-1.3% y/y) after a 0.1% dip. Unfilled orders eased 0.5% (+5.7% y/y) after a 0.2% decline. Backlogs less the transportation sector dipped 0.2% (+2.5% y/y) following a 0.4% dip. Inventories of durable goods eased 0.2% (+3.7% y/y) following a 0.2% rise and excluding transportation they also were 0.2% lower (+2.6% y/y).
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | May | Apr | Mar | May Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, %) | -1.8 | -1.5 | 5.1 | -5.0 | 6.8 | 2.0 | 6.7 |
| Transportation | -6.4 | -4.0 | 15.1 | -9.6 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 17.0 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | 0.5 | -0.3 | 0.6 | -2.9 | 7.3 | -0.2 | 2.4 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | -6.6 | -2.0 | 7.4 | -11.0 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 11.2 |
| Excluding Aircraft | 0.4 | -0.3 | 1.6 | -2.0 | 6.5 | -1.3 | 8.1 |
| Shipments | -0.1 | -0.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 6.6 |
| Inventories | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 3.7 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 3.8 |
| Unfilled Orders | -0.5 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 5.7 | 11.5 | 6.5 | 7.8 |
