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Economy in Brief
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Signal Continued Expansion
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.3% during March...
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Improve; Prices Jump
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index rose to 23.2 during April...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Are Little Changed
Initial unemployment insurance claims slipped to 232,000 (-6.1% y/y) during the week ended April 14...
U.K. Retail Sales Fall
U.K. GDP is expected to cool its jets when the first quarter GDP number is released...
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Rebound; Interest Rates Steady
The MBA total Mortgage Applications Volume Index increased 4.9% last week (1.0% y/y), ...
by Tom Moeller June 23, 2015
New orders for durable goods declined 1.8% during May (-5.0% y/y) following a 1.5% April fall, earlier reported as -0.5%. Expectations were for a 0.5% dip in orders for total durable goods in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Orders for transportation equipment fell 6.4% (-9.6% y/y) as nondefense aircraft bookings were off by roughly one third (-59.9% y/y). Orders excluding transportation equipment rose 0.5% (-2.9% y/y). During the last ten years, there has been an 88% correlation between the y/y change in orders and the change in real GDP.
Machinery orders nudged 0.8% higher (-2.4% y/y) following a 0.4% rise. Orders for computers & electronic products rose 8.3% (6.3% y/y) and added to a 4.3% increase. Electrical equipment orders slipped 0.4% (-1.8% y/y) following a 2.3% decline.
Nondefense capital goods orders fell 6.6% (-11.0% y/y) following a 2.0% decline. Orders excluding the notably volatile aircraft sector gained 0.4% (-2.0% y/y) after a 0.3% dip.
Shipments of durable goods slipped 0.1% (+0.7% y/y) following a 0.2% decline. Shipments excluding transportation edged 0.3% higher (-1.3% y/y) after a 0.1% dip. Unfilled orders eased 0.5% (+5.7% y/y) after a 0.2% decline. Backlogs less the transportation sector dipped 0.2% (+2.5% y/y) following a 0.4% dip. Inventories of durable goods eased 0.2% (+3.7% y/y) following a 0.2% rise and excluding transportation they also were 0.2% lower (+2.6% y/y).
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | May | Apr | Mar | May Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, %) | -1.8 | -1.5 | 5.1 | -5.0 | 6.8 | 2.0 | 6.7 |
| Transportation | -6.4 | -4.0 | 15.1 | -9.6 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 17.0 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | 0.5 | -0.3 | 0.6 | -2.9 | 7.3 | -0.2 | 2.4 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | -6.6 | -2.0 | 7.4 | -11.0 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 11.2 |
| Excluding Aircraft | 0.4 | -0.3 | 1.6 | -2.0 | 6.5 | -1.3 | 8.1 |
| Shipments | -0.1 | -0.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 6.6 |
| Inventories | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 3.7 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 3.8 |
| Unfilled Orders | -0.5 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 5.7 | 11.5 | 6.5 | 7.8 |
