Recent Updates
- China: GDP (Q1)
- Euro area: CSPP Holdings Detail (Q1)
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Apr-prelim), New Residential Constr (Mar)
- Hong Kong: Personal Bankruptcy Petitions, Clearing
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Fell Back in February, but Still in Recent Range
The NAR U.S. Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index decreased 7.6% (-1.4% y/y) in February to 173.1...
European New Car Registrations Remarkably Strong Yet Forgettable
Car registrations are not going to be the only statistic that bears these dual and seemingly dueling characteristics...
U.S. Retail Sales Soar in March
Total retail sales including food service and drinking establishments increased 9.8% (27.7% y/y) during March...
U.S. Industrial Production Rebounded in March
Industrial production rebounded in March, rising 1.4% m/m (+1.0% y/y)...
U.S. Home Builder Index Edges Higher in April
The NAHB-Wells Fargo Composite Housing Market Index rose 1.2% to 83 during April...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller June 18, 2015
The labor market remains on solid ground. Initial unemployment insurance claims declined to 267,000 (-14.3% y/y) during the week of June 13 compared to an unrevised 279,000 during the prior week. The four week moving average fell to 276,750. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 276,000 claims in the latest week. During the last ten years, there has been a 76% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance eased to 2.222 million (-14.0% y/y) in the latest week from 2.272 million. The four-week moving average of 2.231 million was near the lowest level since November 2000.
The insured rate of unemployment held at 1.7%, just above the cycle low.
By state, the insured rate of unemployment continued to vary greatly with South Dakota (0.37%), Florida (0.80%), Virginia (0.82%), Georgia (0.98%), Ohio (1.16%) and Louisiana (1.34%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were Maryland (1.59%), Massachusetts (1.94%), Nevada (2.19%), Pennsylvania (2.22%), California (2.37%) and New Jersey (2.47%). These data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Confident about Quitting: Job Leavers and Labor Market Optimism from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City can be found here.
Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 06/13/15 | 06/06/15 | 05/30/15 | Y/Y % | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 267 | 279 | 277 | -14.3 | 309 | 343 | 374 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 2,222 | 2,272 | -14.0 | 2,599 | 2,978 | 3,319 |
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.0 (6/14) |
2.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 |