Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Prices (Mar)
- Bangladesh: CPI (Mar)
- US: NFIB SMall Business Optimism (Mar)
- Egypt: Steel Sales and Production (Mar), BOP (Q4-Prelim)
- Slovenia: BOP, External Debt Liabilities (Feb)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Improve Modestly
The FIBER Industrial Materials Price Index increased 0.9% during the four weeks ended April 9...
EMU Retail Sales Jump, Regaining Some of the January Drop
February finds EU retail sales and motor vehicle registration rebounding...
U.S. PPI Posts Broad-Based Strength in March
The Producer Price Index for final demand jumped 1.0% (4.2% y/y) during March...
U.S. Wholesale Inventories Post Strong February Gain; Sales Fall
Wholesale inventories increased 0.6% (2.0% y/y) during February...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Unexpectedly Increase
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 744,000 during the week ended April 3...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Monetary Policy Blunder: Not Managing Economic & Financial Outcomes Equally
Monetary Policy at a Crossroad: Policymakers Need to Break Promise of Easy Money to Avoid Boom-Bust
State Coincident Indexes in January
Data Surprises, Markets and COVID
by Tom Moeller June 3, 2015
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Composite Index of Nonmanufacturing Sector Business declined to 55.7 during May from an unrevised 57.8 in April. The latest figure was the lowest since April of last year and fell short of expectations for 57.0 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Haver Analytics constructs a Composite Index using the nonmanufacturing ISM index and the ISM factory sector measure, released Monday. It fell sharply to 55.3, also the lowest level since last April. During the last ten years, there has been a 72% correlation between the index and the q/q change in real GDP.
Deterioration last month spread across the component series, led by a collapse in the supplier delivery index to 50.0. It showed the quickest delivery speeds in a year. The business activity reading of 59.5 was at its lowest point in three months. The new orders series fell modestly to 57.9. The employment index (55.3) deteriorated to its lowest point since January. During the last ten years, there has been an 88% correlation between the employment index and the m/m change in service plus construction payrolls.
The prices paid series improved to its highest point in nine months. Twenty percent (NSA) of respondents paid higher prices, a nine month high. Seven paid lower prices, the least since July.
The ISM data are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure from Action Economics is in the AS1REPNA database.
ISM Nonmanufacturing Survey (SA) | May | Apr | Mar | May'14 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Composite Diffusion Index | 55.7 | 57.8 | 56.5 | 56.1 | 56.3 | 54.6 | 54.6 |
Business Activity | 59.5 | 61.6 | 57.5 | 61.1 | 59.7 | 56.7 | 57.6 |
New Orders | 57.9 | 59.2 | 57.8 | 59.9 | 58.6 | 55.8 | 56.5 |
Employment | 55.3 | 56.7 | 56.6 | 53.2 | 54.9 | 54.3 | 53.5 |
Supplier Deliveries (NSA) | 50.0 | 53.5 | 54.0 | 50.0 | 51.8 | 51.7 | 50.6 |
Prices Index | 55.9 | 50.1 | 52.4 | 60.2 | 56.8 | 55.6 | 59.3 |