Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Prices (Mar)
- Bangladesh: CPI (Mar)
- US: NFIB SMall Business Optimism (Mar)
- Egypt: Steel Sales and Production (Mar), BOP (Q4-Prelim)
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- more updates...
Economy in Brief
FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Improve Modestly
The FIBER Industrial Materials Price Index increased 0.9% during the four weeks ended April 9...
EMU Retail Sales Jump, Regaining Some of the January Drop
February finds EU retail sales and motor vehicle registration rebounding...
U.S. PPI Posts Broad-Based Strength in March
The Producer Price Index for final demand jumped 1.0% (4.2% y/y) during March...
U.S. Wholesale Inventories Post Strong February Gain; Sales Fall
Wholesale inventories increased 0.6% (2.0% y/y) during February...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Unexpectedly Increase
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 744,000 during the week ended April 3...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Monetary Policy Blunder: Not Managing Economic & Financial Outcomes Equally
Monetary Policy at a Crossroad: Policymakers Need to Break Promise of Easy Money to Avoid Boom-Bust
State Coincident Indexes in January
Data Surprises, Markets and COVID
by Tom Moeller May 28, 2015
The job market remains on a firm footing. Initial unemployment insurance claims increased to 282,000 during the week ended May 23 from 275,000 in the prior week, initially reported as 274,000. Despite the increase, the four week moving average nudged up only to 271,500 and remained near the lowest level since April 2000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 271,000 claims in the latest week. During the last ten years, there has been a 76% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
The insured rate of unemployment ticked up to 1.7% but remained at its lowest point since November 2000.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance improved to 2.222 million (-15.5% y/y) in the latest week. The four-week moving average fell to 2.221 million, the lowest level since December 2000.
By state, in the week ended May 9 the insured rate of unemployment continued to vary greatly with South Dakota (0.33%), Nebraska (0.64%), New Hampshire (0.78%), Indiana (0.81%), Georgia (0.93%) and Kansas (1.17%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were New Mexico (1.75%), Massachusetts (1.99%), Nevada (2.17%), Pennsylvania (2.19%), California (2.40%) and New Jersey (2.49%). These data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 05/23/15 | 05/16/15 | 05/09/15 | Y/Y % | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 282 | 275 | 264 | -8.7 | 309 | 343 | 374 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 2,222 | 2,211 | -15.5 | 2,599 | 2,978 | 3,319 |
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.7 | 1.6 | 2.0 (05/14) |
2.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 |