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Economy in Brief

Germany's Consumer Climate Continues to Improve
by Robert Brusca  May 27, 2015

German consumer climate will advance to 10.2 in in June after logging 10.1 in May. The estimate of climate continues to snake higher in Germany even though its pace has been damped in recent months.

The climate reading is at the top of its range. And all components are strong, at least by their queue standings and in most cases by both the queue measure (Count %) and the percent of all time range measure (% range). Among the GfK components, the economic index is faring the worst with a queue standing in its 84st percentile and a position of its historic high-low range that is only in its 69th percentile.

France continues to lag. Its confidence measure is only in its 55th queue percentile, barely above its median value (which occurs at the 50% mark of the queue standing). Italy is faring better than that, but still with a very pedestrian reading. Italian confidence sits in its 72nd queue percentile, a moderately positive reading. The U.K. is experiencing strong consumer conditions with its confidence measure higher only 2% of the time.

Germany continues to lead the EMU region with a strong economy and high consumer confidence. Even so, the advance of German confidence has slowed in recent months as German economic data have prevaricated. The rest of the EMU still seems to be making progress, but huge gaps in the quality of economic conditions remain among EMU members. And of course, conditions are on tenterhooks over the pending resolution of the circumstance of Greece. That continues to hang over all of the EMU.

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