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- China: GDP (Q1)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Fell Back in February, but Still in Recent Range
The NAR U.S. Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index decreased 7.6% (-1.4% y/y) in February to 173.1...
European New Car Registrations Remarkably Strong Yet Forgettable
Car registrations are not going to be the only statistic that bears these dual and seemingly dueling characteristics...
U.S. Retail Sales Soar in March
Total retail sales including food service and drinking establishments increased 9.8% (27.7% y/y) during March...
U.S. Industrial Production Rebounded in March
Industrial production rebounded in March, rising 1.4% m/m (+1.0% y/y)...
U.S. Home Builder Index Edges Higher in April
The NAHB-Wells Fargo Composite Housing Market Index rose 1.2% to 83 during April...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller May 14, 2015
The job market remains firm. In the week ended May 9, initial claims for jobless insurance slipped to 264,000 from an unrevised 265,000, the lowest levels in fifteen years. The four week moving average declined to 271,750. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 270,000 claims in the latest week. During the last ten years, there has been a 76% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
The insured rate of unemployment held at 1.7% in the week ended May 2 for the seventh straight week, its lowest level since November 2000.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance were unchanged at 2.229 million (-16.6% y/y) in the latest week. The four-week moving average fell to 2.260 million, the lowest level since December 2000.
By state, in the week ended April 25 the insured rate of unemployment continued to vary greatly with South Dakota (0.40%), Indiana (0.85%), Tennessee (0.92%), New Hampshire (0.95%), Alabama (1.23%) and Ohio (1.25%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were New York (1.91%), Oregon (1.93%), Pennsylvania (2.30%), Massachusetts (2.33%), California (2.54%) and New Jersey (2.66%). These data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 05/09/15 | 05/02/15 | 04/25/15 | Y/Y % | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 264 | 265 | 262 | -10.8 | 309 | 343 | 374 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 2,229 | 2,229 | -16.5 | 2,599 | 2,978 | 3,319 |
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.0 (05/14) |
2.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 |