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Economy in Brief
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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller May 11, 2015
The industrial commodity price index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) improved 4.0% since the middle of March reflecting improvement amongst several industrial sectors.
Prices in the crude oil & benzene grouping posted a 17.1% rise. The price for a barrel of WTI crude oil rallied to $59.15 as of Friday from the January low of $44.43, but was still off 41.5% y/y. The petro-chemical benzene also improved sharply versus the February lows, but remained down by just over one-third y/y. In the metals sector, prices also rallied since mid-March by 7.0%. Zinc prices led the rebound with a 17.1% increase (15.9% y/y) followed by a 12.3% rise (-4.6% y/y) in copper scrap prices since the end of January. Aluminum prices also moved 8.5% higher during the last eight weeks (10.0% y/y). Steel scrap prices continued to decline to the lowest level since the end of 2009 (-38.7% y/y). Prices in the textile sector also showed improvement with a modest 1.3% rise since the middle of March (-4.4% y/y). Cotton prices rose 7.5% but they're still down by roughly one-quarter y/y. Prices in the miscellaneous materials grouping remained depressed reaching the lowest level since December 2011. Framing lumber prices reached the lowest point since the middle of 2012 (-13.2% y/y) and structural panel prices declined 5.3% y/y. Natural rubber prices had relative strength moving 23.6% higher since mid-October, a low base. They remained down by one-half from the 2011 peak.
Continued support for commodity prices may be on the way. The current industrial output projection from the National Association for Business Economics calls for 3.7% growth in production in 2015 followed by a 3.2% rise next year. During the last ten years, there has been a 52% correlation between the three-month change in prices and the change in industrial output.
Commodity price data can be found in Haver's DAILY, WEEKLY, USECON and CMDTY databases.
FIBER Industrial Materials Price Index (1990=100) | 05/08/15 | Y/Y % | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
All Items | 147.07 | -11.2 | 163.5 | 169.0 | 166.3 |
Textiles | 75.57 | -4.4 | 76.8 | 78.2 | 77.8 |
Cotton (cents per pound) | 63.31 | -26.3 | 73.6 | 79.6 | 74.4 |
Metals | 211.26 | -9.9 | 237.8 | 236.2 | 242.7 |
Aluminum ($ per metric ton) | 1,870.00 | 8.9 | 1,864.9 | 1,846.7 | 2,016.6 |
Copper Scrap (cents per pound) | 291.88 | -3.8 | 311.7 | 332.3 | 360.3 |
Steel Scrap ($ per ton) | 230.00 | -38.7 | 358.3 | 345.8 | 366.5 |
Crude Oil & Benzene | 159.37 | -24.7 | 205.2 | 207.7 | 204.0 |
Crude Oil (WTI, $ per Barrel) | 59.15 | -41.5 | 93.5 | 97.9 | 94.2 |
Miscellaneous | 180.68 | -10.6 | 199.6 | 218.3 | 205.2 |
Framing Lumber ($ per 1000 board ft.) | 321 | -13.2 | 383 | 383 | 321 |
Natural Rubber (cents per pound) | 136.69 | -2.8 | 140.2 | 190.0 | 211.8 |