Recent Updates
- Euro area: CSPP Holdings Detail (Q1)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Fell Back in February, but Still in Recent Range
The NAR U.S. Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index decreased 7.6% (-1.4% y/y) in February to 173.1...
European New Car Registrations Remarkably Strong Yet Forgettable
Car registrations are not going to be the only statistic that bears these dual and seemingly dueling characteristics...
U.S. Retail Sales Soar in March
Total retail sales including food service and drinking establishments increased 9.8% (27.7% y/y) during March...
U.S. Industrial Production Rebounded in March
Industrial production rebounded in March, rising 1.4% m/m (+1.0% y/y)...
U.S. Home Builder Index Edges Higher in April
The NAHB-Wells Fargo Composite Housing Market Index rose 1.2% to 83 during April...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller April 24, 2015
New orders for durable goods jumped 4.0% during March (0.7% y/y) following an unrevised 1.4% February decline. Leading the increase were orders for defense aircraft which roughly doubled m/m (26.5% y/y). Nondefense aircraft orders also were strong, posting a 30.6% gain (-3.2% y/y). Total durable goods orders were expected to rise 0.8% in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been an 88% correlation between the y/y change in orders and the change in real GDP.
Outside of the transportation sector, new orders slipped 0.2% (-1.9% y/y), the sixth consecutive monthly shortfall which totals 5.5%. Machinery orders declined 1.5% (-11.6% y/y), down 12.8% since a June peak. Orders for electrical equipment & appliances fell 1.1% (-1.7% y/y) and were 7.6% below June's high. Orders for both fabricated & primary metals fell modestly m/m and have been trending lower. Offsetting these declines was a 3.0% increase in orders for computers & electronic products though they were unchanged y/y. Orders for motor vehicles & parts have been notably strong. They jumped 5.4% last month (10.0% y/y) to an all-time high.
Nondefense capital goods orders recovered 3.5% (-3.4% y/y) following a 2.2% decline. Orders excluding the notably volatile aircraft sector, however, slipped 0.5% (-4.0% y/y) and were 6.7% below the August peak.
Shipments of durable goods improved 1.1% (3.7% y/y) following a 0.2% slip. Shipments excluding transportation edged 0.3% higher (0.5% y/y) after a 0.5% drop. Unfilled orders were unchanged (+8.0% y/y) following declines in the three prior months. Backlogs less the transportation sector fell 0.5% (+3.8% y/y), down for the fourth straight month. Inventories of durable goods ticked 0.1% higher (5.1% y/y), the weakest of the last three monthly gains, and excluding transportation they also rose 0.1% (4.0% y/y).
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Orders (SA, %) | 4.0 | -1.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 4.1 |
Transportation | 13.5 | -1.8 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 8.4 | 7.9 | 8.9 |
Total Excluding Transportation | -0.2 | -1.3 | -0.9 | -1.9 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 2.1 |
Nondefense Capital Goods | 3.5 | -2.2 | 8.5 | -3.4 | 6.1 | 8.7 | 3.7 |
Excluding Aircraft | -0.5 | -2.2 | -0.3 | -4.0 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.1 |
Shipments | 1.1 | -0.2 | -1.4 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 6.4 |
Inventories | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 4.5 |
Unfilled Orders | 0.0 | -0.5 | -0.3 | 8.0 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 3.6 |