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- US: Consumer Prices (Mar)
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Economy in Brief
FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Improve Modestly
The FIBER Industrial Materials Price Index increased 0.9% during the four weeks ended April 9...
EMU Retail Sales Jump, Regaining Some of the January Drop
February finds EU retail sales and motor vehicle registration rebounding...
U.S. PPI Posts Broad-Based Strength in March
The Producer Price Index for final demand jumped 1.0% (4.2% y/y) during March...
U.S. Wholesale Inventories Post Strong February Gain; Sales Fall
Wholesale inventories increased 0.6% (2.0% y/y) during February...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Unexpectedly Increase
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 744,000 during the week ended April 3...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Monetary Policy Blunder: Not Managing Economic & Financial Outcomes Equally
Monetary Policy at a Crossroad: Policymakers Need to Break Promise of Easy Money to Avoid Boom-Bust
State Coincident Indexes in January
Data Surprises, Markets and COVID
by Tom Moeller April 16, 2015
Initial claims for jobless insurance in the week ended April 11 nudged up to 294,000 (-3.5% y/y) from 282,000 in the prior week, revised from 281,000. Despite the rise, the four-week moving average of claims of 282,750 was nearly the lowest since June 2000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 280,000 claims in the latest week. During the last ten years, there has been a 76% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
The insured rate of unemployment held at 1.7%, its lowest level since November 2000.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance in the week ended April 4 declined to 2.268 million (-16.8% y/y). The four-week moving average fell to 2.329 million, the lowest level since December 2000.
By state, in the week ended March 28, the insured rate of unemployment continued to vary greatly with Florida (0.81%), Tennessee (1.02%), Louisiana (1.14%), Texas (1.44%), Ohio (1.57%) and New Mexico (1.92%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were New York (2.29%), Nevada (2.33%), California (2.62%), Massachusetts (2.91%), New Jersey (3.17%) and Alaska (3.88%). These data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 04/11/15 | 04/04/15 | 03/28/15 | Y/Y % | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 294 | 282 | 267 | -3.5 | 309 | 343 | 374 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 2,268 | 2,308 | -16.8 | 2,599 | 2,978 | 3,319 |
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.1 (04/14) |
2.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 |