Recent Updates
- Euro area: CSPP Holdings Detail (Q1)
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Apr-prelim), New Residential Constr (Mar)
- Hong Kong: Personal Bankruptcy Petitions, Clearing Transactions (Mar)
- Canada: Wholesale Trade (Feb)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Fell Back in February, but Still in Recent Range
The NAR U.S. Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index decreased 7.6% (-1.4% y/y) in February to 173.1...
European New Car Registrations Remarkably Strong Yet Forgettable
Car registrations are not going to be the only statistic that bears these dual and seemingly dueling characteristics...
U.S. Retail Sales Soar in March
Total retail sales including food service and drinking establishments increased 9.8% (27.7% y/y) during March...
U.S. Industrial Production Rebounded in March
Industrial production rebounded in March, rising 1.4% m/m (+1.0% y/y)...
U.S. Home Builder Index Edges Higher in April
The NAHB-Wells Fargo Composite Housing Market Index rose 1.2% to 83 during April...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller April 15, 2015
The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo recovered to 56 in April (21.7% y/y) following a plunge to 52 in March, revised from 53. It was the highest level since January. During the last ten years, there has been an 80% correlation between the y/y change in the home builders index and the y/y change in single-family housing starts. The latest figure exceeded the level of 55 expected in the Informa Global Markets Survey. The NAHB figures are seasonally adjusted.
The index of single-family home sales recovered to 61 (22.0% y/y). The index of expected sales during the next six months jumped to 64 (14.3% y/y), its highest level this year.
Realtors reported that their traffic index bounced up to 41, the highest level in three months. The figure was one-third higher than twelve months ago.
Housing market activity improved in most of the country this month. In the Northeast, the reading recovered most of its March decline with a 16.2% rise (26.5% y/y). In the South, it increased 9.3% (22.9% y/y) and in the West activity rose 3.7% (24.4% y/y). The figure for the Midwest declined 8.3% (+22.2% y/y).
The NAHB has compiled the Housing Market Index since 1985. It reflects survey questions asking builders to rate market conditions as "good," "fair," "poor" or "very high" to "very low." The figure is thus a diffusion index with numerical results over 50 indicating a predominance of "good" readings. The weights assigned to the individual index components are .5920 for single-family detached sales, present time, .1358 for single-family detached sales, next six months and .2722 for traffic of prospective buyers. The results are included in Haver's SURVEYS database. The expectations figure is available in Haver's MMSAMER database.
National Association of Home Builders | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr'14 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Composite Housing Market Index, SA (All Good=100) | 56 | 52 | 55 | 46 | 52 | 51 | 34 |
Single-Family Sales: Present | 61 | 58 | 61 | 50 | 56 | 55 | 36 |
Single-Family Sales: Next Six Months | 64 | 59 | 60 | 56 | 61 | 58 | 41 |
Traffic of Prospective Buyers | 41 | 37 | 39 | 31 | 39 | 39 | 27 |