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Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Prices Ease Broadly
The price of regular gasoline eased to $2.85 per gallon (+53.8% y/y) in the week ended April 12...
U.S. Government Budget Deficit Widens During March
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $659.6 billion during March...
FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Improve Modestly
The FIBER Industrial Materials Price Index increased 0.9% during the four weeks ended April 9...
EMU Retail Sales Jump, Regaining Some of the January Drop
February finds EU retail sales and motor vehicle registration rebounding...
U.S. PPI Posts Broad-Based Strength in March
The Producer Price Index for final demand jumped 1.0% (4.2% y/y) during March...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Monetary Policy Blunder: Not Managing Economic & Financial Outcomes Equally
Monetary Policy at a Crossroad: Policymakers Need to Break Promise of Easy Money to Avoid Boom-Bust
State Coincident Indexes in January
Data Surprises, Markets and COVID
by Tom Moeller March 23, 2015
The Chicago Federal Reserve reported that its National Activity Index (CFNAI) for February declined to -0.11 from -0.10 in January, revised from +0.13. The three-month moving average also turned negative. The reading of -0.08 was the first below zero in twelve months. During the last ten years, there has been a 76% correlation between the Chicago Fed Index and the q/q change in real GDP.
Two of the four component series were negative last month, the same as during the prior two months. The Personal Consumption & Housing series was negative 0.17, its weakest reading since January of last year. The Production & Income figure of -0.07 was the fourth number below zero in the last five months. At 0.02, the Sales, Orders and Inventories series remained weak. The Employment, Unemployment and Hours reading declined to 0.11, its lowest level in six months. The three-month moving average of the total deteriorated to -0.08, the first negative reading in a year. The Fed reported that 48 of the 85 component series made positive contributions to the total while 37 made negative contributions. This breadth of increase was the same as during January.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.
The Chicago Federal Reserve figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
Chicago Federal Reserve Bank | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb '14 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CFNAI | -0.11 | -0.10 | -0.02 | 0.59 | 0.21 | 0.01 | -0.05 |
3-Month Moving Average | -0.08 | 0.26 | 0.35 | -0.12 | -- | -- | -- |
Personal Consumption & Housing | -0.17 | -0.07 | -0.13 | -0.12 | -0.11 | -0.14 | -0.20 |
Employment, Unemployment & Hours | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.23 | 0.08 | 0.18 | 0.10 | 0.09 |
Production & Income | -0.07 | -0.20 | -0.22 | 0.52 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 0.06 |
Sales, Orders & Inventories | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 0.04 | 0.03 | -0.00 |