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Economy in Brief

U.S. Budget Deficit Deepens So Far in FY 2015
by Tom Moeller  March 12, 2015

The Federal Government reported a $192.327 billion budget deficit during February compared to a $193.532 billion deficit during February of 2014. For the first five months of Fiscal Year 2015, however, the deficit deepened to $386.537 billion compared to a $376.371 billion deficit in the first five months of FY 2014. New projections from the Congressional Budget Office call for a budget deficit of $486 billion in FY 2015 compared to $483.4 billion last year, then a $455 billion deficit in FY 2016.

The deeper deficit so far this fiscal year versus FY'14 occurred as outlays rose 6.0% y/y. A 21.7% surge in spending on health programs led the rise. Medicare spending also rose a quickened 9.4% y/y and Social Security payments gained a stable 4.5%. National defense outlays declined 4.1% y/y and income security payments fell 5.5% y/y with lower unemployment. Spending on education, training & social services increased 28.4% y/y while veterans benefits rose 7.3% y/y. Social Security spending increased a stable 4.4% y/y while net interest spending fell 4.0% y/y due to the shrinking deficit.

Net revenues so far in FY 2015 improved 7.1% y/y as corporate income taxes improved 19.0% y/y. Individual income taxes rose 8.1% y/y and social insurance taxes gained 2.8% y/y. Excise taxes increased a stable 2.7% y/y.

Haver's basic data on Federal Government outlays and receipts are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database.

Updated Budget Projections: 2015 to 2025 from the Congressional Budget Office can be found here.

 US Government Finance Feb FY'14 FY'13 FY'12 FY'11
Budget Balance -- $-192.3 bil. $-483.4 bil. $-680.2 bil. $-1,089.2 bil. $-1,296.8 bil.
  As a percent of GDP -- 2.8 4.1 6.8 8.4
% of Total FY'15 YTD
Net Revenues (Y/Y % Change) 100 7.1% 8.9% 13.3% 6.4% 6.5%
  Individual Income Taxes 47 8.1 5.9 16.3 3.7 21.5
  Corporate Income Taxes 10 19.0 17.3 12.9 33.8 -5.4
  Social Insurance Taxes 34 2.8 8.0 12.1 3.2 -5.3
  Excise Taxes 3 2.7 11.1 6.3 9.2 8.2
Net Outlays (Y/Y % Change) 100 6.0 1.4 -2.4 -1.7 4.1
  National Defense 18 -4.1 -4.7 -6.3 -3.9 1.7
  Health 10 21.7 14.2 3.1 -7.0 1.0
  Medicare 14 9.4 2.8 5.5 -2.8 7.5
  Income Security 16 -5.5 -4.3 -1.1 -9.1 -4.1
  Social Security 24 4.5 4.6 5.2 5.8 3.4
  Veterans Benefits & Services 4 7.3 7.7 11.5 -2.0 17.3
  Education, Training, Employment & Social Services 3 28.4 25.9 -21.9 -10.3 -20.6
  Interest 6 -4.0 3.0 0.4 -3.0 15.8
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