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Economy in Brief
FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Improve Modestly
The FIBER Industrial Materials Price Index increased 0.9% during the four weeks ended April 9...
EMU Retail Sales Jump, Regaining Some of the January Drop
February finds EU retail sales and motor vehicle registration rebounding...
U.S. PPI Posts Broad-Based Strength in March
The Producer Price Index for final demand jumped 1.0% (4.2% y/y) during March...
U.S. Wholesale Inventories Post Strong February Gain; Sales Fall
Wholesale inventories increased 0.6% (2.0% y/y) during February...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Unexpectedly Increase
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 744,000 during the week ended April 3...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Monetary Policy Blunder: Not Managing Economic & Financial Outcomes Equally
Monetary Policy at a Crossroad: Policymakers Need to Break Promise of Easy Money to Avoid Boom-Bust
State Coincident Indexes in January
Data Surprises, Markets and COVID
by Tom Moeller February 19, 2015
Initial unemployment insurance claims fell to 283,000 during the week ended February 14 from an unrevised 304,000 during the prior week. The four-week moving average of initial claims declined to 283,250, the lowest level since late-October. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 290,000 claims in the latest week.
The latest claims figure covers the survey period for February nonfarm payrolls. There was a 26,000 decline (-8.4%) from the January period. During the last ten years there has been a 76% correlation between the level of claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance in the week ended February 7 increased to 2.425 million from 2.367 million during the prior week, revised from 2.354 million. The four-week moving average declined to 2.398 million.
The insured rate of unemployment held at 1.8% for the sixth straight week.
By state, in the week ended January 31 the insured rate of unemployment continued to vary greatly with Florida (0.94%), North Carolina (1.08%), Virginia (1.10%), Nebraska (1.13%), Louisiana (1.14%) and Texas (1.27%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were Michigan (2.59%), Maine (2.69%), California (2.81%), Massachusetts (3.28%), Pennsylvania (3.30%) and Connecticut (3.51%). These data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 02/14/15 | 02/07/15 | 01/31/15 | Y/Y % | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 283 | 304 | 279 | -14.2 | 309 | 343 | 374 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 2,425 | 2,367 | -17.4 | 2,599 | 2,978 | 3,319 |
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.2 (02/14) |
2.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 |