Recent Updates
- Japan: ** Japan IP forecasts have rebased from 2010=100 to 2015=100. We are currently working on processing the new data.**
- ** New Zealand Jobs Online has changed its reported frequency from monthly to quarterly and rebased from August 2010=100 to Q4 2010=100. **
- Australia: PPI, Manufacturing Price, Construction Materials Prices (Mar); New Zealand: Trade by Country by Commodity, International Trade (Mar); ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (Apr)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Hits Record High
The Kansas City Fed reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity surged to a record 26...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Decline Sharply
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell sharply to 209,000 (-17.1% y/y)...
German Confidence Flattens and Falters
German confidence for May is mooted at a 97.8% queue percentile standing...
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Are Little Changed; Rates Remain High
The MBA total Mortgage Applications Volume Index eased 0.2% last week (-1.9% y/y)...
Japan Shows Very Moderate Growth As Trade War Clouds Gather
Japan’s sector indexes showed a solid gain in February...
by Tom Moeller February 12, 2015
Total business inventories nudged just 0.1% higher in December (3.9% y/y) versus an unrevised 0.2% November rise. During the last three months, inventory growth slowed to 1.8% (AR) from its high of 7.6% late in 2013. Total business sales, however, fell. A 0.9% decline in December (+0.9% y/y) was the fifth consecutive monthly shortfall. It lowered the 3-month change to -6.1% (AR) versus +11.4% as of last April. The resulting inventory/sales ratio for December rose to 1.33, its highest level since July 2009.
Inventories in the retail sector gained 0.5% during December (2.8% y/y). It raised three-month growth to 0.8% but that was below the double-digit growth at the end of 2013. Auto inventories rose 1.3% in December (3.7% y/y) but fell at a 1.1% rate during the last three months. Clothing inventories increased 1.3% (3.2% y/y) and by 9.4% (AR) since September. Furniture inventories rose 0.4% (2.6% y/y) and at a 3.8% rate in the last three months. General merchandise inventories slipped 0.1% (+0.9% y/y) and were off at a 1.5% rate in the last three months.
Merchant wholesale inventories gained 0.1% (6.7% y/y) in December. The 6.0% rate of growth last quarter was up slightly from Q3. Factory inventories declined 0.3% (+2.7% y/y). It lowered three-month growth to -0.7%. This represented decumulation for the first time since 2009.
The 0.9% decline in business sales reflected weakness in the retail sector. A 1.1% December decline (+2.6% y/y) left three-month sales down at a 2.3% rate. Sales excluding motor vehicles fell 1.2% (+1.0% y/y) and at a 4.4% rate since June. Wholesale sales fell 0.4% (+1.4% y/y) leaving three-month sales falling at a 3.4% rate. Factory shipments declined 1.1% (-0.9% y/y) and at an 11.3% rate during the last three months.
The rise in the total business inventory-to-sales ratio to 1.33 reflected gains in each business sector as inventory growth outpaced sales. The factory sector's rise to 1.34 left the ratio at its highest since early-2009. The same was true for the wholesale sector ratio of 1.22. Any build-up at the retail level has been more controlled as the I/S ratio has been moving sideways for a year. The ratio excluding autos, however, rose sharply in the last three months to its highest level since February.
The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver's USECON database.
Manufacturing & Trade (%) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Business Inventories | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 4.9 |
Retail | 0.5 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 7.2 | 7.4 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 3.2 |
Merchant Wholesalers | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 5.5 |
Manufacturing | -0.3 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 2.4 |
Business Sales (%) | |||||||
Total | -0.9 | -0.4 | -0.3 | 0.9 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 4.5 |
Retail | -1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 5.0 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | -0.9 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 4.2 |
Merchant Wholesalers | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.0 | 1.4 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 4.8 |
Manufacturing | -1.1 | -1.0 | -0.9 | -0.9 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 4.0 |
I/S Ratio | |||||||
Total | 1.33 | 1.31 | 1.31 | 1.29 | 1.30 | 1.28 | 1.28 |
Retail | 1.43 | 1.41 | 1.42 | 1.43 | 1.42 | 1.40 | 1.38 |
Retail Excl. Motor Vehicles | 1.24 | 1.23 | 1.23 | 1.24 | 1.23 | 1.22 | 1.22 |
Merchant Wholesalers | 1.22 | 1.21 | 1.20 | 1.16 | 1.19 | 1.17 | 1.18 |
Manufacturing | 1.34 | 1.33 | 1.32 | 1.29 | 1.31 | 1.29 | 1.29 |