Recent Updates

  • China: GDP (Q1)
  • Euro area: CSPP Holdings Detail (Q1)
  • US: Consumer Sentiment (Apr-prelim), New Residential Constr (Mar)
  • Hong Kong: Personal Bankruptcy Petitions, Clearing
  • more updates...

Economy in Brief

U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rebound to Three-Week High
by Tom Moeller  February 12, 2015

Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 304,000 during the week ended February 7 following a rise to 279,000 during the prior week, revised from 278,000. The four-week moving average of initial claims declined to 290,000, the lowest level since early-November. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 287,000 claims in the latest week. During the last ten years there has been a 76% correlation between the level of claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.

Continuing claims for unemployment insurance in the week ended January 31 declined to 2.354 million from 2.405 million during the prior week, revised from 2.400 million. The four-week moving average declined to 2.404 million.

The insured rate of unemployment held at 1.8% for the fifth straight week.

By state, in the week ended January 24 the insured rate of unemployment continued to vary greatly with South Dakota (0.93%), Oklahoma (1.07%), South Carolina (1.11%), Nebraska (1.15%) and Louisiana (1.16%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were Vermont (2.51%), Michigan (2.60%), California (3.05%), Pennsylvania (3.17%), New Jersey (3.61%) and Alaska (4.74%). These data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.

Unemployment Insurance (000s) 02/07/15 01/31/15 01/24/15 Y/Y % 2014 2013 2012
Initial Claims 304 279 267 -11.4 309 343 374
Continuing Claims -- 2,354 2,405 -19.3 2,599 2,978 3,319
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) -- 1.8 1.8 2.2
2.0 2.3 2.6
large image