Recent Updates

  • US: Consumer Sentiment (Jan-prelim), GDP by Industry (Q3)
  • Consumer Sentiment Detail (Jan-prelim)
  • Canada: MSIO, Intl Transactions in Securities (Nov)
  • Ivory Coast: IP (Nov); South Africa: Financial Soundness Indicators (Nov); Turkey: House Sales (Dec), IIP (Nov)
  • Spain: International Trade (Nov)
  • Italy: BOP (Nov)
  • UK: Retail Sales (Dec)
  • Euro area: Balance of Payments (Nov)
  • more updates...

Economy in Brief

U.S. Budget Deficit Deepens With Spending Surge
by Tom Moeller  February 11, 2015

The Federal Government reported a $17.544 billion budget deficit during January compared to a $10.250 billion deficit during January of 2014. For the first four months of Fiscal Year 2015, the deficit of $194.209 billion compares to a $182.840 billion deficit in the first four months of FY 2014. For FY 2015, the Congressional Budget Office projects the budget deficit will total $468 billion compared to $483.4 billion last year, then remain stable at $467 billion in FY 2016.

The increased deficit so far this fiscal year versus FY'14 occurred as outlays rose 8.3% y/y. A 22.7% surge in spending on health programs powered the increase. Medicare spending also rose a quickened 9.9% y/y and Social Security payments gained a stable 4.4%. National defense outlays declined 4.3% y/y but income security payments gained 1.1% y/y. Spending on education, training & social services increased 24.3% y/y while veterans benefits rose 7.1%. Net interest spending rose 2.5% y/y and Social Security spending increased a stable 4.4% y/y.

Net revenues so far in FY 2015 improved 8.7% y/y as corporate income taxes improved 35.0% y/y. Individual income taxes rose 8.2% y/y and social insurance taxes gained an easier 1.4%. Excise taxes increased a stable 2.7% y/y.

Haver's basic data on Federal Government outlays and receipts are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database.

Stock Market Volatility and Learning from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is available here.

 US Government Finance Jan FY'14 FY'13 FY'12 FY'11
Budget Balance -- $-17.5 bil. $-483.4 bil. $-680.2 bil. $-1,089.2 bil. $-1,296.8 bil.
  As a percent of GDP -- 2.8 4.1 6.8 8.4
% of Total FY'15 YTD
Net Revenues (Y/Y % Change) 100 8.7% 8.9% 13.3% 6.4% 6.5%
  Individual Income Taxes 47 8.2 5.9 16.3 3.7 21.5
  Corporate Income Taxes 10 35.0 17.3 12.9 33.8 -5.4
  Social Insurance Taxes 34 1.4 8.0 12.1 3.2 -5.3
  Excise Taxes 3 2.7 11.1 6.3 9.2 8.2
Net Outlays (Y/Y % Change) 100 8.3 1.4 -2.4 -1.7 4.1
  National Defense 18 -4.3 -4.7 -6.3 -3.9 1.7
  Health 10 22.7 14.2 3.1 -7.0 1.0
  Medicare 14 9.9 2.8 5.5 -2.8 7.5
  Income Security 16 1.1 -4.3 -1.1 -9.1 -4.1
  Social Security 24 4.4 4.6 5.2 5.8 3.4
  Veterans Benefits 4 7.1 7.7 11.5 -2.0 17.3
  Education, Training, Employment & Social Services 3 24.3 25.9 -21.9 -10.3 -20.6
  Interest 6 2.5 3.0 0.4 -3.0 15.8
close
large image