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Economy in Brief

U.S. ADP Measure Indicates Less Job Creation
by Tom Moeller  February 4, 2015

The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls increased 213,000 last month (2.3% y/y) following a 253,000 December rise, revised from 241,000, and a 274,000 increase in November, earlier reported as 227,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey called for a 220,000 rise during January.

The ADP survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 411,000 companies and nearly 24 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data.

Small business payrolls increased 78,000 (2.3% y/y), the weakest gain since August. Jobs in medium-sized firms, however, increased 95,000 (2.3% y/y), the largest rise in three months. Large business payrolls improved 40,000 (2.3% y/y), the weakest increase in three months.

Jobs in the service sector increased 183,000 (2.3% y/y) following a 206,000 rise. It also was the weakest gain in four months. Trade, transportation & utilities employment rose 54,000 (1.9% y/y) while professional & business employment gained 42,000 (3.7% y/y), the softest rise since August. Jobs in the financial sector improved 11,000 (1.3% y/y).

Construction sector employment grew 18,000 (4.1% y/y), the weakest increase since September. Manufacturing jobs improved 14,000 (1.4% y/y), but that was the easiest rise in six months.

The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to April 2001. The figures in this report cover jobs only in the private sector. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.

ADP/Moody's National Employment Report Jan Dec Nov Y/Y 2014 2013 2012
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) 213 253 274 2.3% 2.1% 2.0% 2.3%
 Small Payroll (1-49) 78 115 121 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.5
 Medium Payroll (50-499) 95 78 93 2.3 1.8 1.6 2.0
 Large Payroll (>500) 40 61 60 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.4
Goods-Producing 31 47 42 2.3 1.9 1.6 2.2
  Construction 18 26 20 4.1 3.8 3.7 2.5
  Manufacturing 14 23 18 1.4 0.8 0.6 1.6
Service-Producing 183 207 232 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.3
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