Recent Updates
- US: New Res Sales (Mar), S&P Case Shiller Home Price Indexes, FHFA HPI (Feb), Final Building Permits (Mar)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Existing Home Sales & Prices Rise Again
The NAR reported that sales of existing homes increased 1.1% during March (-1.2% y/y) to 5.600 million units (AR)...
PMIs Stabilize or Creep Higher After Drop-Off
In the EMU, both the services and manufacturing sectors took a substantial step down one month ago...
FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Strengthen Selectively
The FIBER Industrial Materials Price Index increased 0.4% during the last four weeks...
German PPI Accelerates
The German year-on-year PPI has generally been decelerating since early 2017...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Signal Continued Expansion
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.3% during March...
by Tom Moeller February 3, 2015
During all of last year, new orders to manufacturers rose a steady 2.8%. During December, however, forward momentum lost steam. New orders fell 3.4% (-3.6% y/y) following a revised 1.7% November decline, last month reported as -0.7%. The decline was the fifth consecutive drop and exceeded expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey for a 2.2% shortfall.
Durable goods orders declined 3.3% last month and were up 0.4% y/y. This report included slight revisions to the advance durable goods figures. Industry declines were widespread. Transportation orders fell 9.1% (-7.1% y/y), machinery orders declined 3.2% (-5.6% y/y) and computers & electronic equipment orders fell 1.6% (+6.4% y/y). Electrical equipment bookings, however, improved 1.0% (2.1% y/y). Orders for nondurable goods (which equal shipments) declined 3.4% (-7.1% y/y) as the value of petroleum shipments fell 15.7% (-29.9% y/y) due to lower prices. Basic chemical shipments declined 0.3% (-4.4% y/y). To the upside, apparel shipments rose 1.7% (16.9% y/y) and food product shipments gained 0.8% (5.7% y/y). Durable goods shipments improved 1.3% (6.0% y/y) led by a 3.7% rise (10.6% y/y) in transportation equipment shipments. Electrical equipment & appliance shipments slipped 0.1% (+4.5% y/y).
Unfilled orders declined 0.8% (+10.1% y/y) while backlogs excluding the transportation sector were off 0.3% (+6.2% y/y). Machinery backlogs declined 1.1% (+7.3% y/y) and unfilled orders for transportation equipment fell 1.1% (+12.4% y/y). Order backlogs of computers & electronic products gained 0.4% (7.1% y/y) while unfilled orders of furniture improved 0.8% (9.8% y/y).
Inventories were off 0.3% (+2.7% y/y), the first monthly decline since May 2014. Inventories excluding the transportation sector fell 0.5% (+1.0% y/y). Nondurable goods inventories led the decline with a 1.5% fall (-2.1% y/y) that reflected an 8.8% drop (-19.2% y/y) in petroleum inventories. Basic chemical inventories fell 0.6% (+0.3% y/y) but apparel inventories gained 0.5% (24.2% y/y). Textile mill inventories improved 0.5% (2.9% y/y) and paper products inventories rose 0.3% (2.8% y/y).
The factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
Factory Sector- NAICS Classification (%) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Orders | -3.4 | -1.7 | -0.7 | -3.6 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.9 |
Shipments | -1.1 | -1.0 | -0.9 | -0.9 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 4.0 |
Inventories | -0.3 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 2.4 |
Unfilled Orders | -0.8 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 7.0 | 3.7 |