Recent Updates
- US: Wholesale Trade (Feb), Producer Prices (Mar)
- US: Producer Price Indexes by Commodity Detail (Mar)
- US: Producer Price Indexes by Industry Detail (Mar)
- Canada: Investment in Building Construction (Feb), Labor Force Survey (Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Wholesale Inventories Post Strong February Gain; Sales Fall
Wholesale inventories increased 0.6% (2.0% y/y) during February...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Unexpectedly Increase
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 744,000 during the week ended April 3...
Total PMIs Gain Traction in March
The PMI readings for March show improvement again...
U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Bounces Back in February
Consumer credit outstanding surged $27.6 billion during February...
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to Record during February
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $71.1 during February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller January 22, 2015
The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City reported that its Composite index of 10th District factory sector activity fell back to 3 this month, the lowest level since August. A negative new orders figure accounted for much of the deterioration as it declined to the lowest level since February 2013. The employment reading also fell to neutral, its weakest point since August. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time and materials inventory indexes. The prices paid index fell m/m to -3, the lowest level since July 2010. The index of prices paid for raw materials ticked up a point but remained near the lowest level of the economic expansion.
The expectations reading held steady at the lowest level in three months, but it still suggested future improvement in business conditions. Expected new orders remained in a range suggesting moderate improvement while the expected shipments figure improved to its highest point since April. While still suggesting positive growth, expected employment returned to its lowest point in three months. The employee workweek rose and remained in the range of the last year. Expected capital expenditures fell back to the lowest level since March. Expected pricing power for finished products weakened slightly but expected raw materials prices fell to nearly the lowest level of the economic recovery.
The diffusion indexes are calculated as the percentage of total respondents reporting increases minus the percentage reporting declines. The survey included 94 responses from plants in Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming northern New Mexico. Data for the Kansas City Fed Survey can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
Kansas City Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey (SA) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan '14 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Conditions Versus One Month Ago (% Balance) | 3 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
New Orders Volume | -8 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 0 |
Number of Employees | 0 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 5 | -2 | 5 |
Prices Received for Finished Product | -3 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
Expected Conditions in Six Months | 19 | 19 | 21 | 25 | 17 | 10 | 12 |
New Orders Volume | 24 | 23 | 24 | 35 | 26 | 18 | 21 |
Number of Employees | 24 | 30 | 28 | 29 | 18 | 9 | 13 |
Prices Received for Finished Product | 27 | 28 | 24 | 27 | 26 | 24 | 24 |