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Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Fell Back in February, but Still in Recent Range
The NAR U.S. Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index decreased 7.6% (-1.4% y/y) in February to 173.1...
European New Car Registrations Remarkably Strong Yet Forgettable
Car registrations are not going to be the only statistic that bears these dual and seemingly dueling characteristics...
U.S. Retail Sales Soar in March
Total retail sales including food service and drinking establishments increased 9.8% (27.7% y/y) during March...
U.S. Industrial Production Rebounded in March
Industrial production rebounded in March, rising 1.4% m/m (+1.0% y/y)...
U.S. Home Builder Index Edges Higher in April
The NAHB-Wells Fargo Composite Housing Market Index rose 1.2% to 83 during April...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller January 20, 2015
The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo slipped to 57 in January from an upwardly revised December reading of 58, earlier reported as 57. During the last ten years, there has been an 80% correlation between the y/y % change in the home builders index and the y/y % change in single-family housing starts. The latest figure fell short of 58, expected in the Informa Global Markets Survey.
The index of single-family home sales held steady m/m at 62, unchanged y/y. It's been fairly steady at that level for the last several months. The index of expected sales during the next six months fell to 60, also unchanged y/y. It was the lowest level, however, since June. The NAHB figures are seasonally adjusted.
Realtors reported that their traffic index fell to 44 (+10.0% y/y), the lowest level in three months.
Housing market activity slipped in most of the country. In the West, the reading fell 12.2% (-8.5% y/y) while in the Northeast it declined 6.5% m/m (+4.9% y/y). The index reading for the South was off 5.2% (+3.8% y/y) but in the Midwest it gained 11.1% (1.7% y/y).
The NAHB has compiled the Housing Market Index since 1985. It reflects survey questions asking builders to rate market conditions as "good," "fair," "poor" or "very high" to "very low." The figure is thus a diffusion index with numerical results over 50 indicating a predominance of "good" readings. The weights assigned to the individual index components are .5920 for single-family detached sales, present time, .1358 for single-family detached sales, next six months and .2722 for traffic of prospective buyers. The results are included in Haver's SURVEYS database. The expectations figure is available in Haver's MMSAMER database.
Joint Small Business Credit Survey, 2014 from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found here.
National Association of Home Builders | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan'14 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Composite Housing Market Index, SA (All Good=100) | 57 | 58 | 58 | 56 | 52 | 51 | 34 |
Single-Family Sales: Present | 62 | 62 | 62 | 62 | 56 | 55 | 36 |
Single-Family Sales: Next Six Months | 60 | 64 | 66 | 60 | 61 | 58 | 41 |
Traffic of Prospective Buyers | 44 | 46 | 45 | 40 | 39 | 39 | 27 |