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Economy in Brief
U.S. Wholesale Inventories Post Strong February Gain; Sales Fall
Wholesale inventories increased 0.6% (2.0% y/y) during February...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Unexpectedly Increase
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 744,000 during the week ended April 3...
Total PMIs Gain Traction in March
The PMI readings for March show improvement again...
U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Bounces Back in February
Consumer credit outstanding surged $27.6 billion during February...
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to Record during February
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $71.1 during February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller January 14, 2015
Overall retail sales including food services declined 0.9% (+3.2% y/y) during December following a 0.4% November increase, revised from 0.7%. No change in sales had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales excluding autos fell 1.0% (+1.9% y/y) after a 0.1% November uptick, revised from 0.5%. A 0.1% uptick had been expected. During all of last year, sales improved 4.0%, about the same as in 2013. Sales excluding autos gained 3.0% in 2014, also roughly the same as the year before. During the last ten years, there has been a 58% correlation between the y/y change in retail sales and the change in disposable personal income.
Lower gasoline prices pulled the value of total December sales lower with a 6.5% drop (-14.2% y/y), the seventh straight month of decline. Fewer auto sales also weighed on the total with a 0.7% falloff (+8.6% y/y) following a 1.6% gain. This retreat reflected a 1.7% drop in unit sales. In addition, sales of building materials were off 1.9% (+5.2% y/y). Sales excluding these three categories fell 0.2% (+4.0% y/y), the first decline since January. For all of last year, the 3.7% gain was improved from a 3.1% rise in 2013.
Sales of other discretionary goods were uneven last month. Sales of electronics & appliance stores declined 1.6% (+6.8% y/y), the second sharp drop in three months, but sales at furniture & home furnishings outlets gained 0.8% (5.8% y/y), the third rise in as many months. Falling by 0.9% (+1.4% y/y) were general merchandise store sales, the third drop in four months, and apparel store sales which were off 0.3% (+3.8% y/y) following a 2.2% jump. Nonstore retailers posted a 0.3% sales decline (+5.1% y/y), the first material drop since April. Sporting goods store sales fell 0.2% (+4.8% y/y), the first down month since May. To the upside were restaurant sales by 0.8% (8.2% y/y. Growth here has been strengthening since a modest 3.0% rise during all of 2013.
In the nondiscretionary sales categories, health & personal care store sales grew 0.5% (6.1% y/y) and also moved 6.1% higher for the full year. Food & beverage store sales improved 0.3% (2.4% y/y), the same as the prior month. For the year, these sales gained a steady 2.9%.
The retail sales figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
Retail Spending (%) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Retail Sales & Food Services | -0.9 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 5.2 |
Excluding Autos | -1.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 4.3 |
Non-Auto Less Gasoline & Building Supplies | -0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 4.1 |
Retail Sales | -1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 5.1 |
Motor Vehicle & Parts | -0.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 9.3 |
Retail Less Autos | -1.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 4.1 |
Gasoline Stations | -6.5 | -3.0 | -2.2 | -14.2 | -2.7 | -0.6 | 4.3 |
Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | 0.8 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 6.1 |