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Economy in Brief

U.S. Consumer Credit Usage Continues Moderately
by Tom Moeller  January 8, 2015

Consumer credit outstanding increased $14.1 billion during November following an upwardly revised $16.0 billion October rise, initially reported as $13.2 billion. Expectations were for a $15.0 billion increase, according to the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 54% correlation between the y/y growth in consumer credit and the y/y growth in personal consumption expenditures.

Usage of non-revolving credit rose a steady $15.0 billion (8.4% y/y). Federal government loans increased 15.5% y/y. These constitute roughly one-third of total non-revolving credit. Finance company lending (27% of the total) improved 1.1% y/y. Bank borrowing (26% of the total) rose 6.4% y/y and borrowing at credit unions (10% of the total) advanced 15.4% y/y. Nonprofit & educational institution loans (3% of the total) declined 9.4% y/y. Nonfinancial business loans (1% of the total) remained unchanged y/y.

Revolving credit outstanding fell $0.9 billion (+3.4% y/y). Commercial bank & savings institution lending (81% of the total) increased 5.1% y/y. Finance company balances (8% of the total) declined 10.1% y/y while borrowing from credit unions (5% of the total) gained 7.8% y/y. Nonfinancial business accounts (3% of the total) were off 5.4% y/y and securitized credit card balances (4% of the total) fell 1.8% y/y.

These Federal Reserve Board figures are break-adjusted and calculated by Haver Analytics. There is a break in the credit outstanding data from November 2010 to December 2010 due to the Fed's benchmarking process. Benchmark estimates are based on the Census of Finance Companies (CFC) and the Survey of Finance Companies (SFC) conducted in 2010 and 2011, respectively. The consumer credit data are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are contained in the AS1REPNA database.

Consumer Credit Outstanding (M/M Chg, SA) Nov Oct Sep Y/Y 2013 2012 2011
Total $14.1 bil. $16.0 bil. $16.7 bil. 7.0% 6.0% 6.1% 4.1%
   Revolving -0.9 1.5 1.6 3.4 1.3 0.6 0.2
   Nonrevolving 15.0 14.5 15.2 8.4 7.9 8.5 5.9
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