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Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Fell Back in February, but Still in Recent Range
The NAR U.S. Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index decreased 7.6% (-1.4% y/y) in February to 173.1...
European New Car Registrations Remarkably Strong Yet Forgettable
Car registrations are not going to be the only statistic that bears these dual and seemingly dueling characteristics...
U.S. Retail Sales Soar in March
Total retail sales including food service and drinking establishments increased 9.8% (27.7% y/y) during March...
U.S. Industrial Production Rebounded in March
Industrial production rebounded in March, rising 1.4% m/m (+1.0% y/y)...
U.S. Home Builder Index Edges Higher in April
The NAHB-Wells Fargo Composite Housing Market Index rose 1.2% to 83 during April...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller January 8, 2015
Consumer credit outstanding increased $14.1 billion
during November following an upwardly revised $16.0 billion October rise,
initially reported as $13.2 billion. Expectations were for a $15.0 billion
increase, according to the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten
years, there has been a 54% correlation between the y/y growth in consumer
credit and the y/y growth in personal consumption expenditures.
Usage of non-revolving credit rose a steady $15.0 billion (8.4% y/y). Federal government loans increased 15.5% y/y. These constitute roughly one-third of total non-revolving credit. Finance company lending (27% of the total) improved 1.1% y/y. Bank borrowing (26% of the total) rose 6.4% y/y and borrowing at credit unions (10% of the total) advanced 15.4% y/y. Nonprofit & educational institution loans (3% of the total) declined 9.4% y/y. Nonfinancial business loans (1% of the total) remained unchanged y/y.
Revolving credit outstanding fell $0.9 billion (+3.4% y/y). Commercial bank & savings institution lending (81% of the total) increased 5.1% y/y. Finance company balances (8% of the total) declined 10.1% y/y while borrowing from credit unions (5% of the total) gained 7.8% y/y. Nonfinancial business accounts (3% of the total) were off 5.4% y/y and securitized credit card balances (4% of the total) fell 1.8% y/y.
These Federal Reserve Board figures are break-adjusted and calculated by Haver Analytics. There is a break in the credit outstanding data from November 2010 to December 2010 due to the Fed's benchmarking process. Benchmark estimates are based on the Census of Finance Companies (CFC) and the Survey of Finance Companies (SFC) conducted in 2010 and 2011, respectively. The consumer credit data are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are contained in the AS1REPNA database.
Consumer Credit Outstanding (M/M Chg, SA) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | $14.1 bil. | $16.0 bil. | $16.7 bil. | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 4.1% |
Revolving | -0.9 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
Nonrevolving | 15.0 | 14.5 | 15.2 | 8.4 | 7.9 | 8.5 | 5.9 |